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Do not underestimate Howard Dean. Several Dems running for the nomination would have told you last Spring that Dean had no chance whatsoever. Dean is dangerous. He has fanatical supporters. Bush is not all that popular. His support is soft. Dean is no McGovern. Far too many people, including talk show hosts like Laura Ingraham think it will be a cake walk for Bush. I don't think so.

Dean's the ultimate chameleon candidate. He's the politician from the Altman film Nashville. It will be interesting but Bush will win. You are going to see some flash from the RNC this time!

Dean is dangerous. He has fanatical supporters. Bush is not all that popular. His support is soft. Dean is no McGovern. Far too many people, including talk show hosts like Laura Ingraham think it will be a cake walk for Bush. I don't think so.

Excellent points. I normally say the same things and have warned here at FR about Dean for years now. Most people aren't aware that he started doing his foundation work about ten years back, even more lead time than Carter and Clinton took. He's travelled the country, building up his contacts and name recognition among the party for the last decade. His actual politics aside, he's a far more serious and better prepared candidate than either Clinton or Carter.

As far as Bush having soft support, one might point out that Bush's support in industrial battleground states is weak and that evangelical turnout may decline even further. So even in a strong market, low jobs performance and failure to tow the line on social conservatism could cost Bush states that he needs badly.

What we usually fail to notice is exactly how limp support for any of the Dim candidates is from the black voting blocs. This could be a key factor. Personally, I can't recall seeing a set of Dim primary candidates whose public appearances and whose staff looked so white since, well, like the Sixties. Maybe not even then. Heck, for all I know, even Sharpton has only white staff. I think the main reason Gore is so valuable to Dean is to be able to corral black support for Howie by assembling endorsements of liberal black leaders, something Howie can't do for himself, so far his only real weakness as a Dim candidate.

I think the press going on and on about Dean as the outsider who is too far to the Left and will be defeated is a fake-out. This will allow them to run up his name recognition endlessly and then present him as the authentic underdog and voice of the people once he gets the nomination. Shades of Clinton indeed. But I think Dean is their favorite and has been all along. They seem to exploit almost every story in a way to give Howie that magical 'Teflon coating'. But he doesn't have Teflon. He's got weak/stupid/bland opponents and a majority of the establishment press helping his campaign. And after the Clinton years, why would we expect anything else?

I think we're going to have another unconventional election. Something unexpected will be the deciding factor, not the usual stuff.

The defining word with Democrats when it comes to Dean is "desperation." At least that is the impression I get from democrats I encounter day to day. Listening to them, they seem to see him as dangerous enough to pull it off to get the nomination. They like clinton but they are humiliated by the bimbo erruptions.

The democrats are grabbing Dean (dr. feelgoodwithanger) the same way a drowning man will grab the point of a sword.