[CA Conservative]

Bottom line: Bush II will not get the chance to appoint a SC judge unless one drops dead. And the odds are MINISCULE.

I'm sorry, but this statement is ridiculous. By the 4th year of a 2nd Bush term (2008), Rehnquist would be 84, Stevens would be 88, O'Connor would be 78, Ginsberg would be 75, Scalia and Kennedy would be 72, Breyer 70, Souter 69 and Thomas 60. Currently, average life expectancy for men is 81, for women 84. Stevens, Ginsberg and O'Connor have all had health problems. Statistically, at least one or two of these justices should die in the next 4 years, and based on age and medical history, the most likely are Stevens and Ginsberg (history of cancer), followed by Rehnquist (age) and O'Conner (age and history of cancer).

[caltrop]

I suspect Bush would get a chance to make an appointment in a second term. Unfortunately, since I'm convinced it'll be Gonzales, he still won't have appointed a conservative. Whether Gonzales is an improvement will depend on who he replaces.