[2banana]

By endorsing Dean, the pros are quarantining the activist wing for the real election in 2008. When Dean fights the good fight and loses -- big or small; but loses -- it will be a snap for Hillary, Al, and the rest of them to, shedding crocodile tears, hail him as the heart of the Democratic Party and then get on with the serious race for the 2008 nomination.

2008 is a long way away. I don't think either Clinton can keep their pants zipped or mouth shut for that long...

[evad]

These points are straight from Rush's show today. Either he got them from the Spectator or vice versa.

Either way, they make a lot of sense.

[theFIRMbss]

>The Children’s Hour (The Democrats' blueprint for victory in 2008 and beyond)

The 'Rats "victory blueprint" is based on an old movie featuring a story about lesbian oppression and social cruelty?

[Timm]

One thought too many. Never presume calculation when simple party dysfunction will explain what the Democrats are "doing".

Look, anyone who knows anything about politics knows you don't just "give up" the presidency for four years. So, no, establishment Democrats are not doing that. They want a candidate who can win, who can beat Bush. They're not happy about Dean's strength right now, and they may not love their other choices, but they've not given up. Would you, in their place? They still think Clark, or someone else has a chance to win. Get real.

I get tired of these too-clever-by-half, cynical "analyses". Sometimes politics doesn't involve deep diabolical calculation, so that the "real action" has to be revealed to us by clever writers. Sometimes it's just an ugly fight in public. And sometimes a party approaches an election with a weak hand. The Democrats have both issues right now.

Was the GOP just marking time with Dole in '96? Was it engaged in some supersmart calculation "really" to make its move in 2000? Sheesh.

[Graymatter]

I don't know why so many people think a catastrophe would turn voters from Bush. If they mean a catastrophic terror attack, I think that would just notch up America's determination to proceed along the Bush Doctrine lines.

What's the alternative? Softening? Who'd go for that?

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

The Children’s Hour - Jay Currie

As Republican pundits from Bill Kristol to Andrew Sullivan try to muffle their glee at the prospect of Dr. Dean as the Democratic nominee, cool heads of the Democratic Party have long since made the following political calculation:

Proposition the first: Barring catastrophe, there is not the slightest chance of beating Bush in 2004.

The second: No serious person wants the sort of catastrophe which could leave Bush vulnerable or worse.

The third: No serious person will seek the top spot on the Democratic ticket facing almost certain defeat.

The fourth: Democratic Party activists -- tin foil hats, Michael Moore fan club memberships, Moveon.org charter members, psych degrees, Boston, Berkeley, Seattle -- have not had a presidential candidate since 1988.

Therefore: Time for Children's Hour.

The present Democratic Party is an uneasy coalition of naivete and sophistication, idealism and calculation. It manages to team smart union and city machine politicians with social activists and tree huggers. Black, lesbian, Burning Man attendees rub shoulders with fine old Savannah patricians who have yet to forgive Lincoln.

To maintain these alliances, the Party has to balance the necessity of achieving power with a willingness to act as a focal point for the assorted idealisms and group identities which represent a significant fraction of its electoral support and, perhaps, a majority of its activists.

For the professionals -- the Clintons, the Gores, Bill Bradley and so on -- real power matters. To attain power, the professionals know they have to keep the amateurs committed without actually inviting them to the table.

Thus: Howard Dean.

The doctor and his supporters are the last in a string of no-hopers stretching back to Gene McCarthy and running though George McGovern, Walter Mondale, and Michael Dukakis.

By endorsing Dean, the pros are quarantining the activist wing for the real election in 2008. When Dean fights the good fight and loses -- big or small; but loses -- it will be a snap for Hillary, Al, and the rest of them to, shedding crocodile tears, hail him as the heart of the Democratic Party and then get on with the serious race for the 2008 nomination.

And make no mistake: 2008 is a genuine opportunity for the Democrats. Bush will be gone with no obvious successor. If the economy is booming there will be room for arguments about redistribution, if it tanks, the Republican record of deficit spending will be ripe for attack. No matter how well the War on Terror and Iraq go, the public will be tired of orange alert after alert.

But the American electorate as a whole will not be the least bit interested in an anti-war, multi-lateralist, tax-raising Democrat in the Dean mold. Dem pros know this and are working hard to position the party to take full advantage of Bush's departure. Which means sidelining the activists and running a candidate who can win.

The pros also know how big the stakes are in 2008. It may be the last best chance of stopping the Republicans from becoming the natural governing party. And a damn close-run thing it will be. If the Democratic activists defected to a resurgent Green Party in any numbers -- and Dean implicitly suggested that if he did not win his supporters would find a new home -- the Republicans will further entrench their still-shaky majority status.

So, while Republican bigs may relish a real fight, with real positions, over the next ten months, the Democratic pros have moved on. The kids are going to have their chance -- as they do every generation -- to run a big-time campaign on their most heartfelt issues. They'll have enough money to make it feel like the real thing and they will even have professional politicians endorsing their candidate.

And when they lose, the pros will be able to say, "You did a great job. Really. Now, anyone who has learned anything come onboard." If the Children's Hour works, former Deanies, older and a bit chastened, will realize winning, not ideological purity, is what matters in politics. And the Democratic Party will have seasoned another generation of pros.

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Any reason why this article does NOT deserve a full posting? FReegards,

- ConservativeStLouisGuy