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White House Projecting Record $445 Billion Deficit
NBC4.com ^ | 30 July 2004 | NBC

Posted on 07/30/2004 9:53:28 AM PDT by COBOL2Java

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To: lepton
"No he didn't. He anticipated a $300+ Billion a year deficit for 1999 even if he got his full tax increases. What happened was spending was somewhat limited, but revenue increased dramatically, and completely by surprise to his administration."

-- the Government received obscene amounts of revenue from Capital gains taxes in '99 and '00. The stock bubble gave us a surplus. Period. If anybody can find a chart on revenue from capital gains, you'll see too. In fact, state revenues exploded too. California received record Capital Gains revenues as well; the economically-illiterate Gray Davis thought he'd get the same revenues forever, and promptly implemented a spending explosion.
41 posted on 07/31/2004 8:51:51 PM PDT by Remember_Salamis (Freedom is Not Free)
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To: Remember_Salamis
Probably the simplest place to start is with this webpage from the treasury, which shows who we owe and how much:
MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES (in billions of dollars)
                              2004     2004     2004   2004     
COUNTRY                        May    April      Mar    Feb   
                                                                                                                     
Japan                        668.1    652.5    646.4  614.6   Mainland China               164.1    161.0    157.3  153.8   
United Kingdom               113.2    127.3    118.0  101.5     
Caribbean Banking Center 3/   72.2     56.6     66.3   59.8      
Korea                         58.7     59.2     60.4   57.0      
Taiwan                        57.3     56.8     54.8   55.7      
Hong Kong                     52.7     52.1     50.7   53.1     
Germany                       49.7     50.0     45.7   45.9      
Switzerland                   49.3     51.1     48.6   48.2      
OPEC                          48.4     47.5     45.7   43.7      
Mexico                        41.7     35.8     34.0   33.6      
Canada                        33.0     33.3     30.7   28.3      
Singapore                     26.4     27.2     26.7   25.7      
Luxembourg                    25.6     26.2     27.8   27.7      
Ireland                       19.2     14.9     14.8   15.8      
Israel                        18.0     15.5     16.4   14.1      
Italy                         16.1     15.7     15.0   14.9      
India                         15.9     15.9     13.6   13.3      
Turkey                        15.7     16.3     14.9   14.2     
Belgium                       13.7     13.3     12.8   12.9      
Netherlands                   13.6     15.5     12.5   12.6      
Brazil                        12.9     12.4     13.1   11.3      
Sweden                        11.5      9.9     10.5   10.6       
France                        11.0     12.3     16.5   12.3      
Thailand                      10.9     10.8     11.9   15.3      
Spain                         10.4     11.5      9.3    9.6      
Australia                      7.3      7.5     10.0   12.6      
All Other                    118.1    120.7    118.3  114.2    
Grand Totals                1754.7   1728.8   1702.7 1632.3   
It's not perfect, since countries like Japan also will accumulate dollars and the Treasury doesn't necessarily know where these are; it's also not perfect since the "Caribbean money center" line is also an euphemism for "we don't know". For instance, Japan is actually carrying over $800 billion in foreign exchange assets. (For Japanese information, you want to go to the Ministry of Finance (the MOF, rhymes with doff) at and look for the Monthly Finance Review. It gives the actual foreign exchange holdings for Japan, along with lots of useful numbers all in one package.)

But the Treasury page is good enough for government work, since it does tell us (1) who we are paying interest to (2) how much growth in that debt broken by country by month, and it gives a quick grand total. (Countries are not as likely to hold bonds if they are just in for the short term, particularly long bonds, because of nasty combinations of principal risk and exchange rate risk can quickly erode values. You can hedge against this, but that isn't free. Holding to maturity of course eliminates risks to principal due to interest rate rises. Japan manipulates the yen/dollar rate and that eliminates a certain amount of exchange rate risk for themselves. You can find on the MOF web page a summary of their recent currency interventions; the most current one is here. It was 0 yen, not a number that we particularly want to see since we need someone to buy our debt, and if it isn't Japan or China, who need to keep their currencies weak, then it could push interest rates since the auction might be bought by someone who demands higher rates.)

As to the point about the national debt still is more than 50% domestically held, that is correct (it is 70% domestically held currently, and 30% foreign; that is, the above 1.754 trillion dollars divided into the $6 trillion debt ), but the domestic percentage is dropping, and it won't be over 50% soon. The important curve is external debt-to-GDP:

Source: Federal Reserve

Hope this is of some use.

42 posted on 07/31/2004 9:43:03 PM PDT by snowsislander
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To: COBOL2Java

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

If Bush loses, THIS is why...not a single veto in 4 years.


Debt to the penny:

Current Amount

07/29/2004 $7,308,426,855,798.06


43 posted on 07/31/2004 9:54:06 PM PDT by Capitalism2003 (America is too great for small dreams. - Ronald Reagan, speech to Congress. January 1, 1984.)
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To: Remember_Salamis

But Bush is OUR president. We shouldn't have to modify his proposals.

Besides, if you think he introduced it only to get votes, you have a lower opinion of him than I. I am certain that he believes in this Socialist nonsense.


44 posted on 08/01/2004 7:33:05 AM PDT by horatio
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To: snowsislander
Isn't China x42's Debt for the country ? why would this administration owe china that much its just ongoing debt from previous administrations right ?
45 posted on 08/01/2004 2:28:09 PM PDT by ATOMIC_PUNK (Most people talk a lot, few are up for the moment. Welcome to Freerepublic.com)
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To: horatio
>And which of the three- war, recession, or direct attack- is
>responsible for the $400 billion drug plan for seniors?

Or for the $15 billion to fight AIDS in Africa - in a time when we only spend $700 million for Alzheimer's research within the US? Hmmm?
46 posted on 08/01/2004 6:12:29 PM PDT by applemac_g4
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To: Texan5

I live in a rural area and I see thousands of old geezers running around in giant motor homes. Most of them don't look too great so I'd guess they spend a fair amount of time in Doctors' offices.


47 posted on 08/01/2004 8:35:23 PM PDT by liberallarry
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To: Moonman62
Why should I go to DU when people here can't handle the truth either?

Isn't partisan thinking wonderful?

48 posted on 08/01/2004 8:39:13 PM PDT by liberallarry
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To: applemac_g4

Exactly. Bush needs his feet held to the fire, lest "compassionate conservatism" actually rule the day.


49 posted on 08/02/2004 4:22:48 AM PDT by horatio
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To: liberallarry

Here in the hill country, it is a snowbird invasion every winter-the RV parks are full of gas guzzling motor homes dragging Jeep Cherokees and small import SUV's with out of state plates. But these are not people who live here, and the majority of them are obviously wealthy enough to be able to run around like that with no visible means of support, and I'm sure most have private insurance. The majority of them are rude and condescending to local business owners like myself, inconsiderate about where (and how) they park and drive so badly that they literally mow down whole stands of mailboxes at nearly every turn and back into other vehicles with impunity-most of us are quite happy to see them depart for points north in spring, no matter how much money they spend.


50 posted on 08/02/2004 5:40:20 AM PDT by Texan5 (You've got to saddle up your boys, you've got to draw a hard line...)
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To: Texan5

It's the same over here. They're tourists, they don't live in the area. But they live somewhere...and collect medicare and social security.


51 posted on 08/02/2004 7:25:09 AM PDT by liberallarry
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