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To: Remember_Salamis
Thanks for the info - I will say this, however. The entire analysis presumes the following, that taxable interest rates (on treasury and corporate securities) will drop to rates similar to those found on non-taxable securities (municipal bonds). If this presumption were to hold, then everything stated in the info you provided would be exactly correct. BUT, this is a huge assumption and relies on static analysis similar to that imposed by liberals in calculating the "costs" of a tax cut.

Interest rates are determined by supply-demand forces and it is not clear that the assumption holds. In fact, it is not easy to say precisely what would happen, but I personally doubt that taxable rates will drop to nontaxable rates. I believe that previously taxable rates will drop substantially when they become non-taxable, but to a level higher than current non-taxable rates. And current non-taxable rates will rise slightly until they meet.

Actually, they won't meet, because if you could choose between a AAA insured municipal and a federal bond at the same rate, you would always choose the federal for liquidity reasons.

I know that in trying to sell an idea, you want to state it in the simplest terms possible, but I think that the discussion on what would happen to interest rates has been over-simplified and that my original concern on municipal bonds is valid, although slightly less magnified.

314 posted on 08/01/2004 9:00:35 PM PDT by undeniable logic
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To: undeniable logic

"Interest rates are determined by supply-demand forces and it is not clear that the assumption holds. In fact, it is not easy to say precisely what would happen, but I personally doubt that taxable rates will drop to nontaxable rates. I believe that previously taxable rates will drop substantially when they become non-taxable, but to a level higher than current non-taxable rates. And current non-taxable rates will rise slightly until they meet.

Actually, they won't meet, because if you could choose between a AAA insured municipal and a federal bond at the same rate, you would always choose the federal for liquidity reasons."

-- A taxable bond with the same risk rating as a non-taxable bond WILL meet. If not, explain to me why a corporate bond issuer would pay out more in interest than he had to? If they were callable, he would drop his rates in a heartbeat.


322 posted on 08/01/2004 9:06:55 PM PDT by Remember_Salamis (Freedom is Not Free)
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