Your Senate analysis is too pessimistic.
We will pick up all 5 southern seats - FL, GA, NC, SC, and LA.
We will hold CO, AK, and OK.
We will lose IL.
We will gain either the SD seat or the WA seat, unlikely both. Not giving up on WI, either - Feingold could lose.
Still net +4 or more = 55-44-1
A party who runs a wishy washy liberal war hero/peacenik and trial lawyer at the top of their ticket and has an impeached President as their standard bearer with his sort of wife Senator from NYC is not looking at a good future.
I predict a Republican blow out and at least picking up 5 senate seats.