Sabato is engaging in wishful thinking. Its a little early to make a flat prediction Kerry's got it in the bag. He should wait til October before saying anything definite. Besides, there's still the GOP convention and no one knows at this point how big a bounce Bush will get. I think caution is deservedly in order here.
I agree that it's a little early to make a call on the race, but this isn't "wishful thinking" by Sabato. He's not a liberal. Having seen him on TV and read alot of his stuff over the years, he's not a Dem mouthpiece.