The election always is a referendum on the incumbent. Larry Sabato says this BEFORE the GOP convention. If the election were held now, I'd think he'd be right on money. It isn't though and its a long way to November.
sorry Larry, but you're wrong this time
Larry? I think not. If the election were held today, Bush wins, maybe 6-7%, maybe more. It's not being held, today, which is a pity. By Nov, it won't even be that close. Bush by 10%.