Posted on 08/31/2004 11:52:44 PM PDT by HAL9000
MOSCOW (AP) -- Armed men seized a school in the Russian region of North Ossetia Wednesday morning and were in a gun battle with police, news reports said. The region borders with warring Chechnya.The seizure took place on the first day of the Russian school year, when it was likely that a large number of parents had accompanied their children to class.
The reports said the school was in the city of Beslan, which is about 10 miles north of Vladikavkaz, the capital of North Ossetia.
Vladimir Yakovlev, President Vladimir Putin's envoy for the southern region of Russia that includes North Ossetia, was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying it was unclear how many children, teachers and parents may be held in the school.
There were no immediate reports of whether the assailants were making demands or indications of who they were. Police could not immediately be reached for comment.
In 1995, Chechen rebels led by warlord Shamil Basayev seized a hospital in the southern Russian city of Budyonnovsk, taking some 2,000 people hostage. The six-day standoff ended with a fierce Russian police assault. Some 100 people died in the incident.
Depends whether they said they would or actually did execute a hostage every hour. Assuming that they meant business, and carried out the threat, the Russians would have between 10.4 to 16.66 days to continue with negotiation and "appeasement" techniques, and if judged to be significantly unsuccessful and without any effect whatsoever. If the situation deteriorated to that point, a
CQB/storming plan would have to be put into immediate effect. This is one of those "no choice pal" scenarios. One per hour buys some time and innocent casualties may be factored in for the first few hours, depending on how well prepared the assault units were that were already on site. If they do not have pre-planned contingency scenarios and well trained rapid-reaction forces on site ready to go, they, by theoretical management ineptitude, have limited their options and extended a potential rescue from hours to days, if not weeks.
The best outcome one executions started would be to prepare and execute a massive, unannounced night time strike, in this exact order:
1) Pretend to continue with "negotiation" and "appeasement"; promise cash, concessions, offer food, other concrete signs of "good faith"; offer extraction routes; announce the release of terrorists (jam any communications that they have, cut off any information to the outside world); provide them with faked news of released prisoners, use all PSYOP materials in the book (and not in the book); get them feeling secure a day (or hour or so, if it was set to go in a short time frame) or so before the assault;
2) Bring in the most elite and best-trained counter insurgency commandos available in closest physical proximity to the situation;
3) Bring in large numbers of snipers to cover every angle of the building; not 4 or 5 snipers, more like 400, if available; once the operation is launched, any terrorist in any window or hole in the wall receives 20-40 head wounds from all available snipers that have a clear shot;
4) Rush in by plane any and all non-lethal technologies that do not have any long-lasting side effects (any form of gas that will not have any adverse effects on the innocents, i.e. death;) acquire rapid-deployment mechanisms for said gas (30 second max. deployment);
5) Make certain that EVERY single soldier is equipped properly for the mission: gas masks; flash bangs; CS gas; NVG equipment; bulletproof vests; lethal and no lethal weapons; silenced H & K MP5s for CQB, mace, and stun guns for hostage situations (disable the assailant and hostage rather than taking the shot from an MP5) > they will both "come to" later, the prisoner can be freed and the terrorist executed; deploy see-through-wall technology to top-level commanders coordinating the rescue mission; etc. To the extent that some items on the equipment list are not immediately available, ask the U.S. for 24-48 hour response of equipment, or if not cleared for OPSEC reasons, request deployment of U.S. Special Forces and SEAL teams to bring and operate any sensitive or classified equipment (under the watchful eyes of U.S. Intelligence officers) to the site;
6) Bring in police bomb squads and military engineering and demolition units to quickly come up with a plan to clear all booby traps, obstacles, IEDs, etc.
7) Lastly, I would try to get the most stealthy helicopters available and use those to deploy units on the roof at night, at the moment when the gas and other disabling agents are deployed; if there are no choppers available with quiet rotor blades, I would see if elite airborne/parachute forces were available for a HALO-deployed precise rooftop landing;
Once the go signal is given, all elements need to work quickly on a strict time table with a clear O/B down to the last 30 seconds: Gas units deploy first; storming NVG units sneak into deployment positions; sniper units provide careful over watch with strict ROE; engineers jump a few seconds ahead of the storm units to clear traps, defuse bombs, quickly clear obstacles, etcetera. If all goes well the situation can be brutally crushed within minutes, with minimal loss to innocent life. To answer your question, this is my answer to your “what if” scenario.
Theoretically success can be achieved if the operation is planned down to the last detail, coordinated by capable leadership elements on the ground responsible for each team and executed at the squad level with Swiss watch like precision and in the correct order of threat "abatement." The problem is that reality very rarely follows a well thought out or even a well executed plan. The more time that goes by without hostages being killed, the better the chances of negotiation and time can be invested in bringing the best qualified forces to bear on the situation. If they start killing a hostage every hour, the chances decrease of bringing said units and required equipment on site. Time is a significant factor.
Are the Ruskies capable of that type of precision lightning rescue operation? The world will find out, soon enough.
These terrorists really do bring up horrible problems for us all to think about, let alone deal with. Imagine the poor kids and their teachers for a moment. There only “crime” was going to school on opening day… Now they live a nightmare.
That is really something to ponder and pray about. We live in sad times. Ever wonder what God thinks about this mess?
http://www.foxnews.com
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,131060,00.html
"Report: 16 Killed in Russian School Standoff"
Wednesday, September 01, 2004
http://www.canada.com/news/world/story.html?id=883dfeec-2ad2-4c38-968b-0f65f427be61
"Hostage crisis at Russian school drags into second day"
Mike Eckel
Canadian Press
Thursday, September 02, 2004
1 | 2 | 3 | NEXT >>
"Unidentified women cry as they stand near the school seized by attackers in Beslan, North Ossetia. (AP)"
ARTICLE SNIPPET: "BESLAN, Russia (AP) - Heavily armed militants, many strapped with explosives, held hundreds of hostages including children through the night at a provincial Russian school as a wracking crisis stretched toward its second day Thursday.
Crowds of distraught relatives and townspeople waited helplessly for news of their neighbors and loved ones, their distress sharpened by the sporadic rattle of gunfire from the cordoned-off crisis site. The raiders reportedly have threatened to blow up the school if police storm it, but what they wanted and who they were remained unclear."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3619610.stm
Last Updated: Thursday, 2 September, 2004, 01:45 GMT 02:45 UK
"Russia hostage takers surrounded"
"Families are facing an agonising wait for news"
ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Hundreds of troops are surrounding a school in south Russia where an armed group seized at least 200 people, many of them children, on Wednesday morning.
Officials say they are negotiating with the hostage-takers, who have refused to allow food and water to be brought in.
The group is said to be calling for Russian troops to leave Chechnya.
The United Nations Security Council - at a meeting requested by Moscow - condemned the hostage takers "in the strongest terms".
The 15-member council demanded "the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages of the terrorist attack" in Russia.
Distraught families
Security forces said on Thursday that they were had has re-established contact with the attackers."
Need to keep a tight lid on it for Opsec reasons and keep the terrorists way off balance and in the dark. Keep the terrorists guessing, hoping, wondering, "in the dark", thinking about a ransom, demands met, etc, etc.
If the Ruskies have any shred of common sense no media within 50 miles. None. Can't give any real time data to the terrorists. Zero. The entire area of operations needs to be under temporary martial law/complete blackout, until all surviving hostages have been completely evacuated safely from this nightmare. Maybe they could play re-runs of bad 70's "B" or "C" movies and stale moldy oldies songs that even a hippie would despise......
......There was a US prison riot a long time ago (I think this was on TV recently). SWAT teams switching shifts. News media (present) showed the pic. on TV. Zoo-inmates had access to TV, thought an assault was forthcoming. Jeopardized negotiations. Serious breach of Opsec. Situation was compromised.....
The media is a significant internal enemy/criminal element in situations like this. The TV camera team (IMHO) should have done significant prison time for that. They were an enemy opposition force in that tactical scenario. The media can cause significant harm sometimes and even jeopardize lives. They clearly do not care. Their words are B.S. Even if people get killed to get at THEIR "story" they have zero moral conscience. These types look at accidents at the side of the road, while others are trying not to look and using "bypass" driving techniques. I am being as polite as I can be and am withholding other words I have reserved for these types.
No sighs here yet. I hope that there will be no updates at all until all the kids and teachers are released unharmed (if that is possible at this point). In a few days or weeks, I hope to sigh with relief that this nightmare is over for these wretched people. Let's keep our fingers crossed that they make it out OK! (Terrorists notwithstanding)
The 15-member council demanded "the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages of the terrorist attack" in Russia.
I'll bet the UN condemnation scared the TERRORISTS! Why can't the UN call them what they are - - TERRORISTS!
Mitch Rapp - reporting for duty!
How about Yoko Ono's 'Give peace a chance'. lol That ought to drive anyone batty.
"Why can't the UN call them what they are - - TERRORISTS!"
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We are known in part, by the company we keep. This applies to the UN, too.
It appears that he has very yellow or darkened teeth.
Gross. Nice PR for a media man. He must be appealing to the great hordes of the unwashed descending upon the poor Republicans in the lion's den (NY).
Oh yeah, his message stinks also. He needs Crest for his teeth and ideological Crest for his belief system.
Man, I really skimmed WAY too quickly over your question. That REALLY caught me off guard. I replied as if the terrorists started executing a smaller number of people (less than critical mass to storm a building). This is not a traditional law enforcement approach to say the least. Maybe the Russians will try it? Who knows. I have not thought about that as an option from a Russian law enforcement perspective.
I think that the terrorists may go Bezerk if the Russians did what your hypothetical question submitted. They are suicidal and also homicidal after all. I would NOT roll those dice. The terrorists are loco. Doing something like executing some of their fellow would-be (captured) suicide bombers may encourage them to blow themselves up and their prisoners) to Kingdom come (in their case, the place that never freezes). What do you think the terrorists would do?
No, radical Islam is berserk.
Good, wipe the scumbags out.
At this point, though I very much would love to destroy the twin cities of evil, Russia have 20% muslim population and this mean serious civil war...first mass conversions then nuke this sick slime.
Reality is the children are dead. They bomb parade before, wait till old veterans and grandchildren pass to blow...they will thus kill them...but their blood will wash off with galons of Chechins blood...I wonder if DC still like its pet Chechins? They so enjoy supporting them with snide remarks, while protecting their pimps the Saudies/Pakies while DEMANDING support of Russia, Serbia, India, etc, the victems of these monsters.
As you probably know, it takes a while for DC (especially the fools at the State Dept) to break bad habits. But it's all in the past, RC. The Bush admin has barely uttered a peep about it in 4 years.
A full 20%, even after they allowed all those "'stans" independence? That's a lot higher than I thought it would be.
I thought SOUTH Ossetians were majority Russian Orthodox while the NORTH Ossetians were mostly Sunnis.
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