Posted on 09/20/2004 3:14:29 PM PDT by demlosers
If Maryland is in play...!
All your states is ours - bwahahahahaha
Last poll: 47D, 32R
This poll: 45D, 35R
No problem there IMO, especially given the effects of the RNC. I am NOT a fan of reweighting by party.
Last poll: 68 White, 24 Black
This poll: 65 White, 26 Black
No problem there either, and this would tend to work against Bush. We might notice that Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele was the chair or whatever for the RNC. Bush's performance among blacks went from 11% to 21%.
Last poll: 50 Military/Vet, 45 non
This poll: 52 Military/Vet, 44 non
Lost of old Midshipmen and other vets in Maryland. The slight shift works in Bush's favor, but more importantly Bush's performance among military/vet increased from 45-51 (in favor of Kerry) to 55-42 Bush!
Dang. Here I thought I was to be the sole vote for W in Montgomery Co. Oh well. Between the two of us, we have them surrounded, eh.
I was in Baltimore yesterday for the Ravens-Steelers game and many Dems I talked to were voting for Bush. They do not like Lantern Face because of his weak vacillating defense policy, his bloviating arrogance and flip-flops. They thought Bush is doing s decent job and want him to wipe out our enemies. Zell Miller speech/Swift Boat ads swayed many of them. The radicals I talked to were not gonna vote-period. This poll is no suprise to me.
Dear TNCMAXQ,
Actually, Maryland sorta looks like the US as a whole.
There are 23 counties and the independent Baltimore City. Of these 24 jurisdictions, only three are reliably Democrat. They happen to be the three largest, Montgomery County, Prince Georges County, and Baltimore City.
But the rest of the state, with about half the population, votes Republican at the national level.
You still have a lot of old-time Democrats at the state and local level. We actually have a significant number of, get this, PRO-LIFE Democrats in the state legislature. In fact, the previous Speaker of the House, Cas Taylor, was a pro-life Democrat.
There are a lot of gun-rights, pro-life, pro-death penalty folks. Kind of the last vestige of Southern Democrats, I guess.
Over time, I suppose more and more of them will become Republicans, or will be replaced by Republicans. It'll take a while, Maryland is still pretty much a one-party machine state at the local/state level, but that masks a significant growing conservative minority that occasionally verges on the majority.
sitetest
Maryland? What, socialism isn't popular anymore? or hanoi john just doesn't sell there either. If he can't make it there he can't make it anywhere!
"If Maryland goes to Bush, Dan Rather will probably slit his wrists. Of course he'll use an electric razor."
LOL! Coincidentally, I had the good fortune to have my TV on CBS on election night, 2002 at the time when Dan Rather, of all people, projected Mr Ehrlich as the winner over the creepy Kathleen Kennedy for MD governor. It must have killed poor Dan to report that!
the thing with Maryland is .. take out Baltimore and the 2 Washington suburban counties (Montgomery and PG), and it's quite conservative. Baltimore's demographic is predominantly blacks who JFn has failed to engage, much less inspire. Montgomery is liberal white yuppies, and PG is again largely black, but more middle class than Baltimore. It could be that if Baltimore doesn't bother with a large turnout, Bush/Cheney would prevail. In '02, Maryland elected a Republican Governor and Lt. Governor. Not completely out of the realm of possibility. Not a probability, either.
The internals don't mirror the actual registration numbers in Maryland, which means SUSA is not weighing by party.
http://www.elections.state.md.us/pdf/March2004.pdf
According to the March 2000 figures the breakdown is as follows (note numbers = 101.1% because of rounding):
55.8% D
29.9% R
14.4% I/O
If you weigh the results, Kerry would have a decent-sized lead. (I don't have time to do the weighing).
However, even if you don't weigh, Kerry's lead has been eroded in Maryland since SUSA's methodology remained the same.
"And if they aren't, why are they putting out such rosy for Bush, fake polls?"
They could do it so Bushies get a false sense of security and slack off with campaigning, be more inclined not to vote on election day, etc. No matter what the polls say we MUST vote and stay active until then.
I'll believe it when Dubya shows up at a rally or two in Baltimore and elsewhere in Maryland. Same for NY, NJ, and CA. But if he starts showing up in these states in the next three or four weeks, it's over. Also, look for where they're placing their ad-buys.
But right now for CA they've got Kerry by 10 and Boxer (Senate) by 18, both of which (unfortunately) look right. As noted above, if MD is truly in play now, Kerry's effectively toast. He may win Dem strongholds like CA and NY, but that'll be about it.
Once again the 200,000 income voters that went for Gore in thoses Northern surbans are tilting Bush.
WOW.
That said, if it's even within 10 in Maryland, Kerry is toast.
Hold on. What does it mean by "military/vet"? No way is half of any state's population made up of veterans.
Believe it. I lived there for 34 years.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.