Posted on 09/22/2004 11:03:18 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
Who's being "so sensative".? I was trying to be helpful.
I have posted the same links on many threads many times.
(Most of the time I get a "thank you")
(Typing all caps is bad manners)
From The Kerry Spot:
UPDATE: Kerry Spot reader Matthew points out, "If you click on each state of this poll individually, you will see how distorted the polls are. For example, look at Illinois. The sampling is 29% Republicans, and 42% Democrats. And Bush only trails by 6? Same with PA. 42% are Republicans and 48% are Democrats. The poll also is weighted more towards women than men."
Yup, as I look over this, I see Florida is 55 percent women, 45 percent men. Ohio, 54 percent women, 46 percent men.
Also Kerry Spot reader Michael notes that this ARG poll has essentially the same results as the ARG poll completed 9/1, a 47-47 tie.
__________________
As you can see, 2000 data is not adequate for weighting since 9/11, too much has changed.
As you wish! (Lotsa pretty red numbers, now!)
| Bush | Kerry | Nader | Other | DK | Sep | |
| US (weighted) |
50% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 7-21 |
| State: | ||||||
| Alabama | 57% | 37% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 13-16 |
| Alaska | 60% | 27% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 9-11 |
| Arizona | 52% | 40% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-14 |
| Arkansas | 51% | 42% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 15-17 |
| California | 44% | 49% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| Colorado | 49% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 10-13 |
| Connecticut | 42% | 51% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Delaware | 44% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 13-15 |
| DC | 14% | 75% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Florida | 48% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 17-20 |
| Georgia | 56% | 39% | * | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Hawaii | 44% | 47% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 7-11 |
| Idaho | 62% | 27% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 8-10 |
| Illinois | 46% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 13-16 |
| Indiana | 57% | 42% | * | 1% | 6% | 16-20 |
| Iowa | 51% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Kansas | 60% | 32% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 15-18 |
| Kentucky | 60% | 36% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 8-12 |
| Louisiana | 53% | 39% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 17-21 |
| Maine | 47% | 44% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 8-10 |
| Maryland | 46% | 49% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 7-9 |
| Massachusetts | 30% | 61% | * | 1% | 7% | 10-13 |
| Michigan | 43% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 17-21 |
| Minnesota | 48% | 44% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-12 |
| Mississippi | 54% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 14-17 |
| Missouri | 53% | 41% | * | 1% | 5% | 16-19 |
| Montana | 63% | 29% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 7-9 |
| Nebraska | 64% | 27% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 9-12 |
| Nevada | 50% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-14 |
| New Hampshire | 50% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 15-17 |
| New Jersey | 45% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| New Mexico | 47% | 46% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 14-16 |
| New York | 43% | 49% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 14-16 |
| North Carolina | 52% | 41% | * | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| North Dakota | 65% | 30% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 7-10 |
| Ohio | 51% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 17-20 |
| Oklahoma | 58% | 35% | * | 1% | 6% | 15-20 |
| Oregon | 48% | 44% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Pennsylvania | 49% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 15-19 |
| Rhode Island | 33% | 55% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| South Carolina | 55% | 37% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 14-16 |
| South Dakota | 61% | 36% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 8-12 |
| Tennessee | 53% | 40% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-18 |
| Texas | 61% | 33% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-20 |
| Utah | 67% | 24% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Vermont | 43% | 47% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 9-12 |
| Virginia | 52% | 40% | * | 1% | 7% | 12-14 |
| Washington | 47% | 48% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-13 |
| West Virginia | 49% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 14-16 |
| Wisconsin | 49% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-15 |
| Wyoming | 62% | 26% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-11 |
| My personal revising of the above-listed polling results | ||||||
It just seems nit-picking to me. I get his point, the poll is highly suspect and therefor, is BULL.
I know it. It is just my gut feeling.
In the end, I think the New Englanders will all stick with the local guy. Hope I miss that one obviously.
I fully agree, and moreover, they did the same thing in 2000 (they had Gore winning in a blowout on the eve of the election, even in such deep red states as Louisiana, Tennesseem and Kentucky). They definitely lean about 6-7 points to the left of just about everyone else. But is ARG a Rat biased poll or merely a non-affliliated left-biased poll?
I get his point too. In fact, take a look at My Post: Click here
The guy is a newbie. I'm not nit-picking. I have always tried to help newbies.
(Do a "search". You'll see I have.)
I agree
Illinos had a sample size of 600 yet they claim the margin of error is only 4% ???
And from the results it was obviously taken in Cook County
Most of Illinois is split evenly as far as what party people say they are in
I just don't let all caps in someone's post bother me.
I think the ohio poll was double digits for bush, either 10 or 11 up.
Bush has to go TOTAL no hold barred at the debates. Both barrels
Bush has to go TOTAL no hold barred at the debates. Both barrels
Well that settles it. Bush should shuffle his campaign staff 2 or 3 times immediately and try to get a consistent message out right away.
dims are so dim.
OK, it is ARG, and it does have both PA and FL in Kerry's column, although recent polls I've seen have Bush with a 3-4 point lead in FL and 1-2 point lead in PA BUT...
I have noticed a continual downward trend since the beginning of the month with the EC vote. Bush averaged about 312 right after the convention, and ever since has gone down in each subsequent count (RCP and EV included) Now he's down to approx 288. At this rate he will lose the electoral college. Hopefully we'll plateau soon (waiting nervously for debates)
W. is gonna need some major help as we get closer to the election. One major such help would be the start of the hussein trial in October.
He's gonna hand Kerry his a$$ in the debates, methinks.
That sounds true enough, but then look at NJ showing a tie or Bush lead, same with Oregon, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.
Kerry won't break 200 EV's in the end.
I THINK MOST PEOPLE HAVE GOTTEN OVER THAT HANGUP BY NOW. ;)
I think these polls help us to keep our eye on the ball. We can't get too comfortable.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.