Bzzt. wrong answer. BS poll. FWIW, I've got a Bush win at roughly 280 to Kerry's 230 give or take a few.
Actually, you are not far off from ARG's numbers then. They show F'n with a one point lead in FL. If you flip that state to W, their numbers come very close to yours.
My most optimistic is 347-191 Bush (Bush keeps his 2000 states but adds, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Jersey, and one of Maine's votes.)
My more realistic/pessimistic is 289-249 (Bush loses New Hampshire but picks up New Mexico and Wisconsin.)
My whacky "what if?" scenario has Bush picking up New Mexico, one of Maine's votes, New Jersey in a shocker, Iowa and Wisconsin but losing Ohio *and* Florida to Kerry, which leads to a 269-269 tie which Bush wins in the House.