Fiddled--UPDATE: Kerry Spot reader Matthew points out, "If you click on each state of this poll individually, you will see how distorted the polls are. For example, look at Illinois. The sampling is 29% Republicans, and 42% Democrats. And Bush only trails by 6? Same with PA. 42% are Republicans and 48% are Democrats. The poll also is weighted more towards women than men."
Yup, as I look over this, I see Florida is 55 percent women, 45 percent men. Ohio, 54 percent women, 46 percent men.
Also Kerry Spot reader Michael notes that this ARG poll has essentially the same results as the ARG poll completed 9/1, a 47-47 tie.
NRO Kerry Spot
I looked at the gender issue: ARG's polls model the 2000 exit polls as far as gender is concerned.
The party registration numbers are also somewhat reflective as well. (That's from memory and not from any empirical data).
That may explain the pro-Kerry bent. Assuming 2004 is going to model 2000 is a mistake.