If you do as Survey USA does....to the Rasmussen numbers...Bush gains another 5 points. Ras weights his polls 39D 34 R and 27 Ind....
we all know the Dems are not thrilled with Kerry so the chance the actual turnout will be 39-34-27 is a fantasy wish.
If you don't weight his poll Bush would have a 6 point lead
Hmm...funny you would mention this. Bush's lead over Kerry averages about six points in the latest national polls -- which, if anything, may be slightly conservative (at least until Gallup says it's closer -- I trust Gallup over every other firm and have done so for decades).
As someone recently pointed out, Rasmussen had the race in New York closer than the race in New Hampshire. If that didn't set off a red alert about the reliability of his methodology, nothing will.