Third, this is indeed a tight race and--as with any incumbent seeking reelection--the undecided vote will break heavily against Bush, which will make Kerry look like he is surging late. (Even hapless Michael Dukakis had such a late surge.) Late surge from Dukakis? PUH-LEEZE. Dukakis lost California for crying out loud.
II think this article is cliched. Most of those assumptions were true on 9-10, but its a 9-11 world now. I believe Murphy is the guy who ran McCain's "Straight Talk Express" campaign as well as some others.
Don't know about which way the undecides will break, but the main thesis is correct. If Kerry does ANYTHING right in the last month he will be heralded as the Great Closer by the media.
By the media...not by the electorate. They've been making up their mind for the last few weeks and they're not breaking Kerry's way.