Posted on 10/16/2004 7:03:23 PM PDT by BCrago66
There is now no question whatsoever that the Bush re-election futures contract at Tradesports.com is being manipulated. Yesterday the price of the futures were sold down from about 55 (indicating the market's estimate of a 55% probability of Bush's re-election) to 10 (indicating on a 10% probability) with a single 10,000-lot order entered by a single trader. An order that size represents twice the normal volume of an entire typical day's trading. Within moments after the order was completed, the price recovered back to the low-mid-50's.
According to sources at Tradesports, yesterday's order was entered by the same individual who has heavily sold the Bush futures three times over the past month. The first instance was on September 14, when this trader sold the futures down from the mid-60's to 49.6. The second instance was in the middle of the second presidential debate on October 8, when the futures were sold down from the high 50's to 51.5. The third instance was right after the third presidential debate on October13. As the debate began the futures were priced at 57, and by the end of the debate they had risen to 60. Then a few moments later they were beaten down to 54 in a matter of minutes.
In markets this kind of behavior is called a "speculative attack." The idea is not to sell at the highest price possible -- the normal profit-maximizing strategy of a typical seller. Rather, the idea is to use one's selling to deliberately cause prices to fall. Why would any sane trader try on purpose to sell at low prices? In some cases it is in order to panic other traders into selling at even lower prices, so the attacker can buy back what he sold at a profit -- traders call that a "bear raid." But in a speculative attack the motive is more complicated. It is to cause people in the real world -- not just other traders -- to panic.
The classic example of a speculative attack is when George Soros massively shorted the British pound in September, 1992. The Bank of England was obliged to support the pound's exchange rate under the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. With the pound plunging and the BoE pouring billions into supporting it, prospects for the British economy were damaged -- making the pound even weaker. Eventually the BoE exhausted its will to support the pound , and had to pull out of the ERM. The pound collapsed -- and Soros is said to have made a billion dollars on this speculative attack.
It's all based on what Soros has often written about as his "theory of reflexivity." It's when financial markets affect the real world, and then the real world in turn affects financial markets. It's a vicious cycle set in motion on purpose. Here's a speculation of a different sort: could Soros be behind the manipulation of the Tradesports Bush futures? The amounts of money involved are pocket change to Soros. And it would fit his avowed intention to unseat the President. It would be a cheap way for Soros to damage Bush's credibility and panic his troops. I have no idea whether Soros is behind this or not. But it would fit.
This guy might have a point if more than 0.25% of the voting population actually followed TradeSports.
While the polls show momentum on Bush's side, Tradesports.com has him steadily declining? I don't think real investors are causing this.
so you know how they will distort this .. so make some money on them...... really .... is easy to do.... is fun to screw them with their own money.....
Very true. Though it is interesting that there's somebody out there stupid enough to throw away money just to influence some obscure online betting site.
The problem is this: Such speculation does nothing to change the actual outcome.
So while it is good to know the speculators are doing this, there is no sense in wasting money defeating it... if it is 'underpriced' buy it and make some money off Soros or whomever is doing this.
Anyway Ladbrookes of London has Bush at about 64% chance for victory FYI.
The Iowa market only allows $500 accounts so this would be much harder to do there.
Larry Kudlow and others have been commenting on the Iowa markets and the Tradesports. It is increasing in following. I am not sure what Soros would achieve. Does he think this demoralizes Bush's followers?
IEM, Tradesports, and other markets are more reliable than polls. So they are an attractive target for manipulation.
Pray that God will take Soros out before Soros does damage to our economy. The man's hatred of Bush is unbelievable!
The mob would deal with this in a simple manner. No not whack him, but destroy his wealth. Hope some of those Republicans do a back room think tank on Soros wealth.
I think it's actually fairly likely.
Not many people watch Tradesport directly, but commentators like Kudlow report these figures as part of their Bush-bashing. And web sites like FR also regularly report on these sorts of things. So there's a multiplier effect, and word quickly gets out--especially of the Mass Media wants the word to get out.
We can assume that Soros is coordinating his various attacks with the usual suspects at the DNC and in the editorial rooms of the major news organizations.
Best everyone be aware that futures markets are not a great deal different from the world of parimutuel betting.
And only 30% of all horse race favorites win.
the same thing is happening with oil futures. wish some folks could finger Soros on oil and link him to RATS.
Maybe Soros will die soon.
He thinks everyone but him are stupid.
Well, I guess it could be worth chump change to make sure the odds didn't get too favorable for Bush and become an item.
Soros made most of his mony as a currency thief. His record as a passive investor is horrible!
Kudlow has been a consistently supportive of President Bush. You are misinformed.
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