The dynamics of this race is more like 1996, in which you had more dislike for the incumbant than a like of the challenger. Dole ran a poor campaign, so did Kerry.
However, since Bush has no chance,as of now in winning CA, NY, or Il, Bush will get 344 EV with 53% of the vote.
Clinton got a bunch of EV, however, had Dole gotten 500,000 more votes (total) in 12 states, Dole would have won.
I agree with you! I think your numbers are correct! TX where I lived went for Dole! Clinton almost came in 3rd!