LAS VEGAS — When John Kerry arrives in Reno today for his sixth visit to Nevada this year, he will underscore a dramatic shift in the geography of the race for the White House.
Kerry, in a virtually unprecedented move for a Democrat, is relying more on the West than the South in his plan to reach the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.
Once the party of the "Solid South," Democrats this year are not actively contesting any state in the region except Florida in the presidential campaign. Instead, Kerry has shifted his attention west, mounting major efforts in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and, at one point, Arizona.
"In the 1980s and the 1990s, the Holy Grail was to make the Democratic Party competitive in the South again," said Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democratic Network, a political action committee that supports centrist party officials. "Now the Southwest is a vital, new part of the Democratic strategy."
This shift may reflect equal parts opportunity and weakness.
Democrats see opportunity across the Southwest in its growing Latino population and signs that the region's moderate suburbanites may be warming to the party's stances on social issues.
Some polls have him ahead in Nevada, Clark County, Las Vegas controls the state. Lots of new people changing it.
"Some polls have him ahead in Nevada, Clark County, Las Vegas controls the state. Lots of new people changing it." Not sure which ones your are reading. The latest is 52 to 42 in favor of Bush:
BATTLEGROUND STATE: Poll says Bush has big lead
October survey reveals 10-point spread over Kerry
By ERIN NEFF
REVIEW-JOURNAL
The presidential race that has been neck-and-neck in Nevada for several months has opened up with President Bush enjoying a 10-point lead over John Kerry, according to a new statewide poll of likely voters.
Bush leads Kerry 52 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll taken for the Review-Journal and reviewjournal.com from Oct. 14 through Oct. 16. A similar poll in September gave Bush a 50 percent to 45 percent lead.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader gets 1 percent of the vote, and 4 percent are undecided.
The statewide poll of 625 voters by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Pollster Larry Harris said Bush appears to have a "comfortable lead" in Nevada not only because he holds 86 percent of his base, but he is pulling support from nearly 20 percent of Democrats.
The poll asked respondents which issue would be most influential in their election decision for federal offices. Homeland security and the war on terrorism topped the list with 23 percent, followed by the war in Iraq at 17 percent. Moral issues and family values finished third at 12 percent; 6 percent cited that as a top concern in last month's poll. The economy as an issue dropped substantially from the September poll, coming in at 11 percent compared with its previous ranking at 16 percent.
"When you look at issues important to voters, these are the issues that play well for Bush," Harris said. "Given the fact that economic issues only pop at 11 percent, Kerry's message on the economy is just not resonating in Nevada."
Harris was unsure how Bush widened his lead in the month between polls after observers believed Kerry won the round of debates that took place from Sept. 30 to Oct. 13.
Ninety percent of those polled said they watched the debates, but 4 percent said the debates changed their mind.
"Your state is just a Republican-leaning state," Harris said.
The Kerry campaign in Nevada said the poll is out of line with others conducted in the state around the same time.
"Our last tracking poll last week had us down 3 points," Kerry spokesman Sean Smith said. "When you look at what's happening in Clark County with Democratic voter turnout, we believe that we're outworking them, and we know that we're outvoting them."
Bush spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt said she was particularly pleased with Bush's gain in Clark County.
In the September poll, county voters were going for Kerry 51 percent to 44 percent. The new poll has Bush up 48 to 47 percent in Clark County.
"We believe the state will go for Bush, but we still think it's a close race," Schmitt said. "What I think this poll demonstrates is that John Kerry's agenda is at odds with the state's concerns."
Hal Rothman, chairman of the history department at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said he thought the race was going to come down to about 3,000 votes statewide.
"Watching voting trends and registration trends, I don't know who you polled," Rothman said. "A poll that says there's a 10-point lead for Bush or for Kerry at this point would not represent the reality of what's happening."
Kerry pollster Mark Mellman said he was surprised at the results because other polls he has seen showed the race much closer.
"I'm not going to say the poll is flawed because I don't know all the methodology, but these results are widely out of sync with every other poll that's been done in the state," Mellman said.
He suggested that if Kerry were down 10 points, the candidate would not be spending as much time courting the state in visits and television ad buys.
Kerry will campaign Friday in Reno and plans a stop next week in Las Vegas.
"The numbers are what they are," said Brad Coker, Mason Dixon's managing partner. "Nevada's been leaning Republican for several years, and I don't know why there's any reason Nevada should be going for Kerry."
Three percent of voters said the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain will be the most influential issue in their vote for federal offices. Democrats have said Yucca Mountain is an issue that plays for them.
The closest Kerry has been to Bush in Nevada in the Mason-Dixon polls was in July, when the results showed Bush and Kerry in a statistical dead heat at 46 percent to 43 percent, respectively. The largest lead for Bush came in a March poll by Mason-Dixon. It showed Bush up 49 to 38 percent.
The recent poll was conducted statewide, with 385 interviews in Clark County, 130 interviews in Washoe County and 110 interviews in rural Nevada.
Rothman said the sample used does not accurately reflect the state's voting population. Roughly 70 percent of voters statewide are in Clark County. The Clark County sample polled is at 62 percent.
"You polled one in six in the cow counties," Rothman said. "That can't be right."
The poll broke evenly between the parties, with 43 percent of respondents identifying themselves as Republicans and 43 percent as Democrats.
A poll for the Las Vegas Sun; KLAS-TV, Channel 8; and KNPR public radio in late September showed Bush with a 5-point lead over Kerry, 47 to 42 percent.
Last week, a Zogby poll of Nevada voters had Kerry with a 1-point lead.
An average of nonpartisan polls taken in Nevada from Sept. 20 to Oct. 18, and reported by Real Clear Politics, showed Bush with a 5.5-point lead.
Sig Rogich, a Republican consultant in Nevada and a friend of President George H.W. Bush, said he did not think the race was at 10 points.
"I find those numbers suspect," Rogich said. "As much as I'd like to have those numbers, everything I can see is that it's a 4-point race, with Bush up 4."
Rogich said out-of-state pollsters need to understand the nuances of Nevada voters, including the frequency with which voters in the regions of the state vote.
"I do believe that Bush bottomed out a week or 10 days ago and that we're beginning to see upswings now," Rogich said. "I always felt that this was his state to lose, but it's definitely closer to four."
David Damore, a political science professor at UNLV, said he thinks the race is much closer than 10 points and suggests the pollsters "just got a sample that's out there."
"I think the race is in the margin of error," Damore said. "I'd chalk it up to an irregular sample."
The Mason-Dixon poll of battleground states last week showed Kerry closing in on Bush in Ohio, New Hampshire and Missouri, compared with polling in September.
West Virginia and Nevada are the only states won by Bush in 2000 in which Bush has increased his lead from the company's September poll. Bush is now up five points in West Virginia, compared with a 1-point advantage in the Mountaineer state in September.
The company plans to release data today from seven "blue" states, those that went for Al Gore in 2000.
The Nevada poll found that Bush is recognized favorably by 53 percent of Nevadans, compared with 37 percent unfavorable opinions and 10 percent neutral.
Kerry is recognized favorably by 38 percent, compared with a 46 percent unfavorable rating, 15 percent neutral and 1 percent who did not recognize him.
Michael Green, a history professor at the Community College of Southern Nevada, said he did not know what to make of any of the polls in Nevada.
"I know the Democrats have had better luck registering people," Green said. "I also know new registrants don't show up on polls of likely voters. But if you're asking me, what it might mean, call me back on Nov. 3."
any chance of copying more of the article - I refuse to register for the paper which asks everything but your blood type! (Collecting data for future "purge list" when anarchists take over?
by David Horowitz