Bush to Benefit from "Doug Wilder Effect"?

Dwinell Report Newsletter | 10/31/04 | Jim Dwinell

[Straight Vermonter]

In the fall of 1989 Doug Wilder was a sho-in to be the first African American governor in the United States. The final Washington Post poll just before the election had Wilder winning by 11 points. On election day he won by 2 points.

The variance became known as the "Doug Wilder effect." Many people who were polled just did not want to tell the pollster that they would not vote for that nice colored man. As a result the polling data for Wilder was inflated.

Potentially the Doug Wilder effect was in the polling data. The Bush haters are so vehement and possessed that it is hard in some places or groups to tell people that you are for Bush. The cultural icons are all wildly for Kerry, be they from Hollywood, academia, media, or European capitals. Even your local librarian is for Kerry 233 to 1. So when the pollster calls, a percentage of the sample who favors President Bush is afraid to speak frankly and therefore indicate their preferences falsely?

[Straight Vermonter]

It is interesting to think that Bush's numbers may be depressed because of this effect.

[fortheDeclaration]

Even your local librarian is for Kerry 233 to 1.

A good reason to get rid of libraries.

[Tensgrrl]

I was wondering about something like that. I wonder if, for instance, union folks worry about supporting anyone what who the union endorses and say they will vote for Kerry, but in the privacy of the voting booth, vote differently.

[ClintonBeGone]

What if Bush's numbers are inflated because of this?

[counterpunch]

Ronald Reagan benefitted from this in 1980.

[Galtoid]

I have been thinking about all these national tracking polls, and have determined that they are just junk.

I strongly suspect that the polling outfits stay largely away from solid red states in the South. There is simply no need to poll anyone in KY, TN, LA, etc.

I think they are concentrating on the Northeast, the Atlantic Seaboard, and the Upper Midwest. If so, it looks really good for Dubya.

My thoughts . . .

[Straight Vermonter]

Bush's latest ad even mentions, "in the privacy of the voting booth, why take a chance?"

[A Balrog of Morgoth]

On the other hand, I haven't heard anyone refer to John Kerry as "that nice colored man".

[ChildOfThe60s]

No, just the librarians.

Although, a housecleaning of the multicultural swill would also be a good idea.

[fortheDeclaration]

Yes, maybe we could have automated libraries.

[A Real Dan Fan... NOT]

Orange is OK for a pumpkin, not a Presidential candidate.
Besides, he is not that nice.

[Moose Dung]

Either that or the Bush voters, a) have jobs, and b) have caller ID and don't answer 30 minute polls at 7:00pm.

I've read several articles lately about how difficult it is to get reliable data out of the battleground states. In some areas you have 6 different outfits fielding polls. Each one is looking for +/- 1000 responses. Pollsters are saying it takes 10 calls to get someone to even start the survey and only half actually finish...1 finished poll for 20 calls, times 1000 completed questionaires, across 6 polling organizations.

That's 120,000 phone calls each day into each of the battleground states. At some point you'd be better off doing focus groups.

To make matters worse, they pollsters are trying to get fresh numbers every day and everybody is calling off the same voter registration lists.

There was one guy interviewed on the local news saying he gets 2 to 3 calls from pollsters EVERY DAY!

Frankly, I wouldn't be answering my phone unless I was really bored and lonely.

dung.

[Poohbah]

On the other hand, I haven't heard anyone refer to John Kerry as "that nice colored man".

He's not nice, that's why. But orange IS a color (c8

[alnick]

In Bush's ad "The Choice," the voiceover, after listing negative things about Kerry, says, "alone in the booth, why take the risk."

I think there will be many democrats who will secretly vote for Bush.

[Max Combined]

I doubt it, but we will soon find out.

[Popman]

A good reason to get rid of libraries.

Let's not throw the baby out with the bath water. Just the socialist librarians

[Pharlap]

Two examples of the "Wilder Effect", one provable and one not. First, the Defense of Marriage initiatives. The votes in Missouri and Louisiana were higher in support of the initiative than the polling data because (a) people did not want to tell pollsters they supported the initiative, and (b) the polling organizations, usually newspapers did not support the initiative. Second, and not provable (at this time), the Bin Laden tapes. People do not want to admit that Bin Laden's statements have brought 9/11 and the war on terrorism (as compared to the war in Iraq, which many people prefer to decouple from the war on terrorism) more clearly into focus. Although the war on terrorism is usually listed as the most or second most important campaign issue it has become somewhat of an abstraction for many voters (primarily because there have been no homeland attacks since 9/11). It is now more of a reality and will sway more voters than the polling organizations are now showing.

[IMRight]

I wonder how the Australian election looked right before the vote?

I guess the big question is "did 9/11 really 'change everything'"?

We certainly outperformed the polls in the only other election since 9/11.

[freelancer]

Even your local librarian is for Kerry 233 to 1.

"A good reason to get rid of libraries."

Hey! Hey! Hey! Careful there. This librarian is 100% for Bush. Granted, I'm outnumbered in the workplace, but there is not one person there who will dare debate me on any issue. They know better than to try by now.

Speaking of trying to talk to Kerry supporters, has anyone else noticed that if you try to speak some truth and talk some sense to these people they practically put their fingers in their ears and say "blah blah blah I can't hear you"

Now that I have that out of the way, I'm not sure I buy into that "Doug Wilder Effect". The telephone polls are fairly anonymous and unless you are worried that your next door neighbor is working for Gallup, why bother to fake your answers?