Estrich ignored the fact that Hamilton county, which is marginally GOP, has tons of votes out, as well as hyper GOP Warren and Clemont County. Kerry is on the razors edge in Ohio. His chances of winning are poor, but not quite yet impossible, since one doesn't know where the precincts are coming in from Cuyhoga, and Cuyahoga is only 52% counted, while the state is 68% counted.
Perhaps you need to have a look at Wisconsin.