Bush's lead in OH is approximately 136,000 before all of the military absentee ballots that will only pad that lead. But's let's assume a worst-case scenario and say that Kerry breaks even with those ballots and Bush still has a lead of 136,000. You have to remember that provisional ballots are not valid ballots per se, but were cast by people who showed up and were not allowed to vote (rightly, in most cases, I would imagine) because of various reasons (not registered, at the wrong precinct, etc.). Now there has been a lot of talk on the TV about 90% of Ohio's provisional ballots being ruled as eligible in the last election but that was under a different definition of provisional balloting that was far more strict (most people who requested a provisional ballot during the last election had to jump through various hurdles just to obtain them). But, again, let's assume a worst-case scenario and assume that 90% of all the provisional ballots were again rendered valid (and I stress this is HIGHLY unlikely - I'd be surprised if 20% of them are ruled as valid), that would leave the total pool of provisionals at 140,000. Less than half of these provisional ballots were cast in the heavily-Democratic areas of Ohio (Cuyahoga and Franklin) where Kerry won by approximately 2-1, but let's assume that Kerry takes 80% of these ballots in ALL areas (including the heavily Republican counties). Heck, let's make it 90% (again, something that won't happen). That means Kerry gains 126,000 votes and still trails Bush.
Rest easy...it's over.
Thank you.
I just spent too long over reading at DU. REading all their blather about how they're looking for voter fraud and how Kerry could still win (consession speech means nothing) was starting to worry me.
I need to swear off of cruising thru DU.