[Final Authority]

You say Newt needs Republican support to go anywhere. I think you are correct if one believes Newt is considering himself as a conventional candidate.

I believe he is posturing himself as a conservative populist or the redeemer of common sense and traditional values. It all hinges on how he positions himself with respect to national security, borders, language, culture, and the criminal alien problem.

If he thinks he will get 15% of the electorate and the GOP snubs him then look for him to go the way of Ross Perot. Many of us on this forum for the past year has considered the third party option, not that I want or many want, but because the GOP is not conservative enough where we need them (CFR signing, $15b to Africa for AIDs, etc.). If Newt goes the way of the populist and the third party then the GOP will be toast for the next eight years. This is a shot across the bow of the GWB administration, I hope.

[JacksonCalhoun]

A "shot across the bow" is an interesting way to put it. The party could use some 'ideas' people, and Newt certainly has ideas to keep them out of the mushy middle.
I just take issue with the "shoulda, coulda, woulda" criticism on Iraq without saying "OK, here's how we get out of this mess". It smacks of opportunism