Posted on 01/14/2005 10:28:02 AM PST by Destro
'India, China may outshine US by 2020'
CHIDANAND RAJGHATTA
TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ FRIDAY, JANUARY 14, 2005 10:44:02 PM ]
WASHINGTON: The rise of China and India as global players is heralding an Asian Century in place of a receding American Century, a US intelligence report said on Thursday.
In a far reaching projection, the CIA-commissioned report compared the rise of the two Asian giants to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful United States in the 20th century, and said the event will transform the world's geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries.
"In the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the 'American Century,' the 21st century may be seen as the time when Asia, led by China and India, comes into its own," the report titled 'Mapping the Global Future,' observed. "A combination of sustained high economic growth, expanding military capabilities, and large populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise in economic and political power for both countries."
The report is the third in a series of five-yearly forecasts of global trends published by the National Intelligence Council, a group of senior intelligence analysts who report to the CIA director. The earlier reports were for 2010 and 2015. The forecasts for 2020 were based on consultations with more than 1,000 non-government experts at 30 conferences on five continents over the past year.
Expectedly, the 2005 report for the 2020 projection reflected the post 9/11 changes, but it also contained a degree of certitude not seen in the two previous studies, including a more upbeat assessment for India. "Barring an abrupt reversal of the process of globalization or any major upheavals in these countries, the rise of these new powers (China and India) is a virtual certainty," it predicted.
The report said while most forecasts indicate that by 2020 China's gross national product (GNP) will exceed that of individual Western economic powers except US India's GNP will have overtaken or be on the threshold of overtaking European economies. But the rise of India also will present strategic complications for the region, the report suggested. Like China, India will be an economic magnet for the region, and its rise will have an impact not only in Asia but also to the north-Central Asia, Iran, and other countries of the Middle East.
As India's economy grows, governments in Southeast Asia -- Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and other countries -- may move closer to India to help build a potential geopolitical counterweight to China, it said. At the same time, India will seek to strengthen its ties with countries in the region without excluding China.
Although the 114-page report is replete with references to the rise of China and India, it contended that despite daunting challenges "the United States will retain enormous advantages, playing a pivotal role across the broad range of issues --economic, technological, political and military --that no other state will match by 2020." But in several places in the report, the analysts conceded that the western world will see significant decline.
Dubbing China, India, and perhaps others such as Brazil and Indonesia, as 'arriviste' powers, the report said they "have the potential to render obsolete the old categories of East and West, North and South, aligned and nonaligned, developed and developing."
"Traditional geographic groupings will increasingly lose salience in international relations. A state-bound world and a world of mega-cities, linked by flows of telecommunications, trade and finance, will co-exist," it said.
The rise in the Chinese and Indian economies is happening because of the american consumer. if the USA is hurting economically, and China and India haven't developed a mature domestic economy, then they will sink along with us.
China may very well someday shine with the light of ten thousand suns.
India does have a long way to go, but at least it is moving in the right direction. You think it's bad now, 15 years ago it was much worse.
"Shhh.....you aren't allowed to speak of the spending anymore. Didn't you get the memo? People with an 'R' next to their names are allowed to spend like drunks in Vegas. It's ok."
Too true.
Not until the Communists are thrown out of power.
Unemployment is low causing labor shortages in some sectors. If we don't increase our labor force US companies will be forced to close, outsource or relocate over seas.
A burgeoning middle class in India and China is not necessarily a bad thing for the U.S.
In the eighties, I have heard the same crap about Germany and Japan being a powerhouse..
Western populations are in demographic decline, so of course their economies will become less influential.
--I didn't get the memo. It's why I speak of Congress as controlled by Republidums and would describe myself as a small-"l" libertarian who is beginning to think we should give anarchy a chance---
In a related story, the Sao Tome Times reports that Sao Tome will outshine India and China by 2025...
America will be the preeminent global power - economically and otherwise, for a long time.
Whew! I was worried for a moment...
More seriously, both countries have very big demographic problems to contend with. India has an enormous population of illiterate paupers, and the Indians who are achieving Western levels of affluence must be very foolish not to realize that sooner or later a demagogue is going to promise to make their lives better by confiscating the property of the wealthy.
China's 1 child policy will cause an enormous bulge in the aged population and eventually a substantial decline in her population. Couple that with the enormous disinvestment caused by the political abuse and corruption of the CCP, and China's own pauperized rural and urban unemployed, and there's more than enough opportunity for the US to stay on top for a long time, especially if our population goes up to 500 million by 2100.
All true. Also makes the EU even less relevant. WOnder how that will sit with those puffed up prissies.
No one can outshine INNOVATION. US is the only country that innovates daily..Google,iPod,UPS,Walmart,Pepsi,Xerox,P&G......
End of discussion :-)
Ya, communism and caste systems beat out democracy... maybe in crack-land but not in reality.
India and China are benefitting from the fact that their costs are lower, their businesses more hungry and their people are available for a fraction of the cost of a U.S. or Japanese employee. What they need to remember is that as their enconomies boom and their standard of living increases and their wages rise, there are other countries waiting in the wings that with the right investment will do the job quicker, faster, and cheaper. If their star ascending then it may well be a short rise and a painful fall.
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