Posted on 01/14/2005 10:28:02 AM PST by Destro
15 years ago if someone had said that in 15 years the US will run a 600Billion trade deficit Or that high end technology jobs would be rapidly moving to India... no one would believe that either. Chances are 15 years is a long time and can hold surprises.
Bangalore alone hires more computer programmers than silicon valley today. 15 years ago that number was next to nothing. A lot can change in 15 years..
I am NOT saying India is about to outshine the US. But considering that in the last 15 years India has come a long way and is firmly entrenched in a high growth phase with enormous job growth, it needs to be taken seriously.
Consider that the only reason the US is the worlds preeminent power is the sheer size of the economy. All other accomplishments of the US are the by product of the economy. As India and China grow their economies they will have resources to invest in R&D that they have NEVER had before. Thats not to say that its going to be easy but its very well within their realm.
A lot has been made in this forum about how these countries never produced anything on their own. Same arguments were made by europeans when the US was emerging as a big economy.
The question is not what they did in the past.. the question is what can they do in the future when they have resources that can rival the US? No country ever had that advantage in the 20th century. No country had a GDP as much as the US. Its quite wellknown that in the 21st century both India and China will be as big as the US. Of course we can debate the timeline.
The CIA is right in pointing out that these 2 countries seem to be in a position to create economies that rival the US. Who else can do that? europe? NO. Japan? No. Russia? NO
So we have to talk about the most likely suspects... India and China.
China is eventually going to have an aging problem much worse than that of the United States.
Aging problem ? Try a lack of wives problem. Eventually the Hordes of the East are going to come looking for war ... and wives.
I was recently talking with a political scientist/researcher from Australia about the huge sex imbalance coming in China among between men and women ages 18-35, or so. I have seen numbers of a delta of close to 25 million more men than women.
He said, mostly, but not totally, in jest, that there would be a huge money making opportunity for the bold entrepreneur in gay bars over the next few years in China.
FYI, this is coming at a time when the People's Liberation Army is also trying to shed one million troops from its rolls in order to professionalize. The PLA is mostly a jobs program.
China could very well implode (not likely but a possibility) as demographic and natural resource pressures continue to strain their system.
Ah, have a heart, they want to improve themselves and want to dream. So they aim to one day be more America than America. If along the way they take our values (and goods!) all the better for us!
OR, it could be the ultimate triumph of the Gay Liberation League......
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