Posted on 04/12/2005 7:37:48 PM PDT by Covenantor
Marburg Toll in Angola Rises to 237 - 11 in Luanda
Recombinomics Commentary
April 12, 2005
>> The health ministry and WHO said in a statement that the greatest number of deaths -- 190 -- was recorded in the northern Uige province, the epicenter of the epidemic that was first detected in October.
A total of 202 cases have been detected in Uige, it said.
The highest number of deaths after Uige was in the Kwanza Sul province with six fatalities and six cases, followed by five deaths and 11 cases in Luanda, five deaths and six cases in Zaire, two deaths and four cases in Mananje, and one death and one case each in the provinces of Cabinda and Kwanza Norte.
Meanwhile, health ministry spokesman Alberto Carlos told reporters that six other bodies had been found in a hospital morgue in Uige and that laboratory tests proved that they had succumbed to the virus.
He underlined that these deaths did not figure in the toll released Tuesday, without giving a reason. <<
The latest update indicated that the recorded cases had grown to 231 (excluding the six bodies in the Uige morgue). Uige has 190, but now Luanda has the second highest number of cases with 11. These two provinces also have the largest numbers of recorded patients that are still alive, with 12 in Uige and 6 in Luanda. The only other provinces with recorded patients who have not yet died are Mananje with 2 and Zaire with 1. The other 3 provinces have no recorded survivors.
These latest figures for Luanda match the 5 deaths described in media reports. The data suggests that the two recent cases in Cacuaco described in media reports have either not died, or not been recorded. The same situation would apply to the Portuguese national. The latest update indicates that there are three additional cases in Luanda which have not been described in media reports.
This added detail focuses attention on Uige and Luanda, but the number of unreported cases in these two areas is still unknown, which is also true for the other provinces.
The 237 cases suggest that the number of recorded cases will soon exceed the record number of 280 deaths in the 1976 Ebola outbreak in Zaire. There are still no recent reports of any of the Marburg cases in Angola being discharged.
Well, the next two weeks should tell us what is going to happen...Actually, the next week will.
Correction in place
Yes I could and Yes it is. Exactly.
How about for the next version? Since I have been having a bit of trouble with this one... ahem.
Yup.
http://allafrica.com/stories/200504110900.html
The Health and Social Services Minister admitted that he was also aware of the allegations and, as such, he personally visited Engela hospital on Saturday to monitor the situation."It is not yet a Marburg virus disease infection case, because it is not laboratory confirmed," Kamwi said, adding that symptoms of Marburg fever have similarities with those of other diseases.
Shangula said both cases had been "100 per cent discounted" after laboratory tests were done on the patients.
Maybe. But do a search of Mother Abigails responses regarding the propensity for this strain to show false negative results. Nothing with this Marburg/Ebola seems to follow the previous outbreaks.
One of these Marburg threads had the information that all tests for the virus had to be sent to the US.
So have these negatives been tested in the US, I wonder.
Looks like Recombinomics is staring to catch on to your theory. I've posted the graph at another discussion forum, citing proper credits of course. Hope you don't mind.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04130501/Marburg_Cluster_Nero.html
Commentary
Large Familial Marburg Cluster Signals Efficient Transmission
Recombinomics Commentary
April 13, 2005
>> "This is a homage to Nero, the most famous musician in Uige, who, together with his wife, daughter, grandson and nephew, were killed by Marburg a few days ago," Cardoso said on Tuesday as the band enjoyed a beer after a practice session in a small flat in central Uige.
<<
The comment above would signal efficient transmission of Marburg in a large familial cluster and would indicate control of the outbreak will be exceedingly difficult.
Media reports have focused on transmissions from child to mother as well as patient to health care worker. These earlier reports signaled an reasonably efficient transmission, but somewhat limited. The death of an extended family moves the transmission to a much higher level. Unless this cluster was due to extremely extraordinary circumstances, it would signal exponential spread of the virus.
The most detailed media reports were released several weeks ago and more recent reports appears to be dated. The quote above is more recent. the report is lacking in detail on the circumstance surrounding the transmission, including a verification that the deaths were due to Marburg. However, it seems likely that the report is accurate. It is unclear if this large familial cluster is related to the six confirmed cases in the Uige morgue.
If the report on the familial cluster is accurate, it would create a major cause for concern..
Luanda is the place to watch, population 1.5 million.
Yes, there was or I had 3 cases in Portugal, one had since died. Testing was negative for Marburg...not surprised by that result are we?
Thanks for maintaining the information on the curve. I very much appreciate it.
Actually, if you look at the map of Angola, they have a few districts that are the same as country names and leave it to the media to make this even more confusing.
iafrica.com | news | world news Suspected Marburg case in Portugal
A Portuguese man returning home from Angola on Wednesday complaining of a fever was rushed to hospital where he has undergone tests for the killer Marburg virus, health officials said in Lisbon on Thursday. ... the region worst hit by Marburg, a severe form of haemorrhagic fever ...
iafrica.com/news/worldnews/953012.htm
The post I linked to in #46 is from a paper called The Namibian, published in Namibia, not Angola. Still, as others have pointed out, we don't know for sure that they don't have a problem there.
Suspected Marburg case in Portugal
Posted Thu, 31 Mar 2005
A Portuguese man returning home from Angola on Wednesday complaining of a fever was rushed to hospital where he has undergone tests for the killer Marburg virus, health officials said in Lisbon on Thursday.
The 27-year-old man had been working in Uige, the region worst hit by Marburg, a severe form of haemorrhagic fever akin to Ebola, that has killed 126 people in Angola in recent weeks. It spreads on contact with the fluids the body produces in reaction to it, such as vomit, blood, and saliva.
He is the third Portuguese to undergo tests for Marburg, the previous two having been cleared.
"He's doing alright but he has a fever," said Dr Graca Freitas, from the department of contagious diseases where he is being treated, adding the tests had been precautionary.
His tests have been sent to a German laboratory and the results are expected on Thursday afternoon.
Portuguese authorities this week told all their nationals not to travel to Uige and for any who had done so in the past three weeks to contact public health services immediately.
AFP
HE is the THIRD to undergo testing and this report is more than 2 weeks old.
I also wanted to thank the both of you for your work.
Apparently there was an infectious disease expert on Good Morning America yesterday who reassured people that there was "no chance" that Marburg could get to the States....
Somehow I don't buy it. Just like I think these reported deaths are lower than the actual total.
Agreed, we don't know much for sure.
I've noticed this morning a number(3) of my Anglo in country newspapers have their sites down...perhaps it's for another reason or a quirk.
But according to the CDC's website, "There is no indication that persons with Marburg virus disease have left the African continent."
He is the third Portuguese to undergo tests for Marburg, the previous two having been cleared.
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