I think you're right on them getting more than 60 votes anyways. I think a lot of Dems know they have to change their stand on abortion and other moral issues to get re-elected and I think the Dem platform, with the lead that Hillary has taken, will become very tricky on the matters of morality. Kerry's flip flop will be nothing compared to it.
Just because they vote for Owen and the other after the fillie buster is defeated doesn't mean anything because that takes no guts.