Posted on 05/25/2005 6:23:10 PM PDT by Axion
Bolivia: The Brink of Civil War
May 25, 2005 19 52 GMT
Summary
A previously unknown Bolivian military movement surfaced on a privately owned television station in La Paz on May 25 to demand the immediate resignation of President Carlos Mesa, the dissolution of Congress, and the nationalization of the oil and gas industry. The emergence of this self-described nationalist group, which appears to be aligned ideologically with left-leaning groups seeking a forced change of government, has edged Bolivia closer to a civil conflict and Balkanization that would have adverse economic consequences for neighbors Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru.
Analysis
Political tensions in Bolivia jumped higher May 25 after two army lieutenant colonels revealed the existence of a clandestine military movement seeking the resignation of President Carlos Mesa and the dissolution of Congress to make way for a "government of the people." Army Lt. Col. Julio Herrera, appearing on private television with Lt. Col. Julio Cesar Galindo, said the two represent a "generational military movement."
Herrera's statement also called for the immediate nationalization of the oil and gas industry, and warned that many Bolivians -- including civilians and military personnel -- are prepared to defend Bolivia's sovereignty.
The television appearance confirms the existence in Bolivia's army of a clandestine nationalist movement that sympathizes ideologically with left-leaning groups such as the Bolivian Workers Central (COB), headed by labor chieftain Jaime Solares. It was not immediately clear if this clandestine movement actually has links to Solares and the COB. Herrera, however, revealed the movement's existence only a day after Solares called for a military figure "like Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez" to lead a nationalist Bolivian government.
Herrera's statement also confirms splits within the Bolivian armed forces in which middle-ranking officers in direct command of combat forces could seek to challenge the country's generals if Mesa's police security forces fail to control growing protests in La Paz and lethal violence erupts in the streets. Left-leaning opposition leaders seeking Mesa's ouster are attempting to push the protests toward a violent outcome.
Later in the day, however, Bolivian armed forces commander Adm. Luis Aranda and other members of the top military command issued a nationally televised statement declaring the military's institutional support for Mesa, and dismissing the statement by Herrera and Galindo as "seditious" efforts to "muddy and discredit the institution with coup talk."
Separately, Bolivian Defense Ministry officials said May 25 that attempts by Galindo and Herrera to instigate a military coup had been crushed before the military high command issued its statement disqualifying the two. It was not immediately clear whether the two junior officers have been arrested.
Herrera told a local radio station, however, that his group is not promoting a coup. Instead, he said, the military officers -- who he acknowledged are all lower-ranking officers -- are only responding to a "popular clamor" for the military to take charge of Bolivia's national government. For now, Galindo appears to lead the group. No biographical information was immediately available on either of these mid-ranking army officers.
Since May 23, more than 10,000 protesters have shut down and isolated La Paz, and another 10,000 indigenous protesters and miners were expected to start arriving May 25 to join the groups already in the capital. As the demonstrators grow in number, so does the likelihood of violent clashes with security forces.
Despite growing pressure for his resignation, Mesa is trying to stand firm. He called May 24 for a constitutional assembly and for a national referendum on demands, mainly by wealthy lowland departments, for greater economic and political autonomy from the Bolivian central government in La Paz. The country's highest-ranking military leaders also back these initiatives.
An official Bolivian armed forces statement drafted by the country's top military leaders and delivered late May 22 supported the idea of a constitutional assembly. It also did not reject outright demands by lowland political and business leaders for a referendum on regional autonomy. It is not clear, however, whether Bolivia's generals have full control of their troops now that Herrera and Galindo have announced the existence of their nationalist movement. If Mesa or his generals try to deploy troops to contain escalating protests in La Paz and other cities, some units could disobey those orders and join the protesters instead.
Mesa does not have much time left as president of Bolivia. If protest leaders can keep up the pressure in the coming days, despite a four-day national holiday that begins May 26, they could force Mesa to resign within weeks or even days. His resignation, however, would only aggravate Bolivia's crisis.
Bolivia is literally at the brink of a civil war. A power struggle between left-leaning groups concentrated mainly in the country's impoverished indigenous highlands and the wealthy right-leaning citizens of the lowlands will intensify if Mesa leaves the presidency. Lowland political and business leaders will push even harder for regional autonomy if a left-leaning government comes to power in La Paz. Moreover, it is doubtful that a Chavez-like military leader in Bolivia could keep the country together if he assumes the presidency without the political legitimacy of democratic elections.
It also is unlikely that a right-wing military government, or one backed by the military, could sustain itself in power without the benefit of democratic legitimacy that only comes from free elections. However, if political tensions in the streets of La Paz spread into the Bolivian armed forces, power will gravitate initially to the military faction with the greatest firepower and troop numbers. It is unclear at the moment which group has more strength: the generals or the lieutenant colonels.
Stratfor forecast more than a year ago that Bolivia's crisis was edging the country closer to Balkanization. Current trends in Bolivia continue to support that forecast. If Bolivia collapses, neighboring countries like Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru will feel the political and economic impact of that collapse.
Regional governments, led by Brazil, will likely have to consider intervening in Bolivia if Mesa's government falls. Initially, such intervention would come through the Organization of American States in Washington, D.C. Stratfor, however, doubts the OAS could get the job done. In fact, Brazil's government could quickly find itself in the difficult and risky position of having to lead a deployment of peacekeeping forces from Brazil and other neighboring countries in Bolivia, as it has done in Haiti.
Again!
Bolivia is like a planet. it has daily revolutions.
Please describe this revelation.
"`generational military movement.´"
This part I get.(wo'wif bein' young an' a°')
Who's in charge?
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