OK..thanks for the hard data. I respect your nose-to-the ground onsite perspectives. My concern was not to save DeWine's ass, but rather that a primary fight could cost Blackwell the statehouse. And yes, the senators who hurt the party need to be taken to the woodshed, but more important, you have to get the WH and the national leaders to back the real conservative in the race..not automatically favor the incumbent...That's how we got Arlen again..and boy,are we paying for it now..
The White House used it's capitol and got Spectre through the primary. They don't have the capitol to convince Republicans to vote for DeWine or someone other than Blackwell a second time.
I supported Toomey but I'm still not sure they made the wrong decision at the time, given I have strong doubts Toomey could have one in a Presidential year. But regardless of feelings over that, it just won't be effective a second time. All anyone has to do to rebut an endorsement is to say remember spectre? Then if not eneough, remind them of Voinovich on Bolton and deWine on the judges.
I don't think Blackwell is going to win the governorship. He will not likely win the primary.
Betty Montgonery has essentially signed up the Ohio team George Bush used in 2004. A number of the full time and most of the volunteer Bush people in Ohio have been signed up by Betty. Blackwell will have to beat that team and I don't think he can.
I contacted Blackwell's campaign by email, and got a form email asking for money. Betty's people contacted, me invited me to a get together with her here in Chillicothe. She has over 50 volunteers signed up in Ross County and they were all at the meeting. Except for one or two people it was the Ross County Bush team meeting to donate money and support Betty Montgomery. She spent 15 minutes talking to me and asking for my support. Blackwell sent me a form email.
Montgomery has had a committee formed in everyone of Ohio's 88 counties for three months. She even has the endorcement of Summit County Republicans. She has the best people in nearly every county signed up to work for her.
Blackwell is still laying low. It is a terrible mistake. With Montgomery having the best grass roots people signed up, Petro and Blackwell are way behind.
I figure it will take 2000 votes to win the primary here in Ross County. I did a quick count of the party workers at Betty's Ross County meeting. Betty has signed up people whom I figure will directly produce between 1700 and 1800 votes on primary election day. She needs media to pick up 200 votes to win Ross County. The other two need media and personal appearances to produce 2000 votes. I don't think Radio and TV spots plus personal appearances can do it.
Politics, as Karl Rove proved, is GRASS ROOTS. As far as I can tell Blackwell has not done much to organize the grass roots. I hope he can But I doubt if he can catch up.