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Locked on 09/22/2005 3:40:46 AM PDT by Jim Robinson, reason:
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Posted on 09/21/2005 4:19:11 PM PDT by NautiNurse
I didn't mean for that to add to your worries! I didn't know that is where your aunt lives. I'm sorry!
Models are REALLY shifting north and east now.
Couldn't agree more- we have a saying down South ( and I've heard it elsewhere ) that "when bad luck jumps you, it gets you with both feet."
Hate to see this.
From the 4:15 AM AFD from Ft. Worth:
BIG CHANGES POSSIBLE WITH THE MAJOR HURRICANE AS THREE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. FIRST...AND POSSIBLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT...RITA HAS ALREADY MADE SOME MOVEMENT FURTHER NORTH OF WEST. SECOND...WHILE H5 RIDGE REMAINS RATHER STRONG...IT HAS SHOWN SIGNS THAT IS IS ALREADY WEAKENING...PER 00Z UPPER AIR DATA. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST IN WEAKENING SUCH STRONG RIDGES...SO THIS HAS AND CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN AS THE RIDGE LOCATION AND STRENGTH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION OF LANDFALL. LASTLY...ALL BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL HAVE REALLY TAKEN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK AS IT RELATES TO LANDFALL AND TRACK OF DISSIPATING SYSTEM.
BELIEVE THAT HPC AND NHC HAVE A GREAT HANDLE WITH ADJUSTING THE LANDFALL FURTHER EAST AND TAKING THE DECAYING STORM MORE ACROSS E TEXAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ACTUAL LANDFALL OCCUR EVEN FURTHER EAST...POSSIBLY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BEAUMONT.
*IF ALL THIS WASN/T ENOUGH...GFS80 HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A
REBUILDING RIDGE ALL AROUND WEAKENING RITA...SO MUCH THAT RITA
COULD ROTATE AROUND PARTS OF N E AND S TEXAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
Her home is about 3 blocks down from the seawall in Galveston. Her late husband built the house and she's lived there for 50 years.
got a link to any more models?
I agree, I see NO getting hit with the Eastern side of the storm like Mississippi did with Katrina. Katrina flattened that area.
I expect Rita will do most of the demolish work needed in NO to clean it up.
I'm in tears. Oh my god.
We live in Port Arthur. 2 years ago, my parents (and me, in college) moved into a baby blue Victorian with pool, their absolute dream house.
I feel sick. I don't know what to bring/leave. This is so horrible.
Everyone, please, lift those prayers up high....keep 'em going and don't stop.
Thanks to every single FReeper for their unconditional love and support.
Oh, wow. This deserves the all-caps..
We were ready to leave in about an hour...but we're on the west side of town. This is a huge development.
Just Damn.
KPLC is good, thanks.
000 URNT12 KNHC 220942 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 22/09:12:20Z B. 24 deg 55 min N 087 deg 55 min W C. 700 mb 2245 m D. NA kt E. NA deg nm F. 303 deg 134 kt G. 228 deg 010 nm H. 902 mb I. 14 C/ 3068 m J. 29 C/ 3057 m K. 8 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C18 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF307 1618A RITA OB 18 MAX FL WIND 165 KT NE QUAD 05:34:00 Z STADIUM EFFECT LIT BY MOONLIGHT AND BY LIGHTNING WITHIN EYEWALL
Other significant changes from the previous Vortex 1:58 ago:
- This run from the southwest
- Movement - 7 minutes north, 9 minutes west
- Eyewall 2 nm wider than last time (now 18 nm)
If the remnants of Rita end up rotating around for a few days, that means all the rain that typically gets dumped over a large inland swath will instead get dumped in E. Texas.
I'd rather Hurricane Rita (Cosby) veer right toward NOLA. It can't destroy what's already gone.
Looks like Galveston's in for a big test of its sea walls.
Do we know what freepers, in addition to gab1279 (who is in Port Arthur), are now in this new path?
That and the relief is already established there.
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