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To: dirtboy

Great news that this hurricane is amazingly still weakening. The outflow looks incredible, but obviously the dry air must be getting to it.

It probably will not regain any strength now at this point.

It will just continue to slowly weaken.......by landfall, 115 mph winds probably.


2,584 posted on 09/23/2005 9:08:23 AM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
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To: rwfromkansas
It will just continue to slowly weaken.......by landfall, 115 mph winds probably.

However, it will probably resemble Ivan's landfall in that it has already put a lot of water in motion as a Cat 5/Cat 4. So the surge will be more like a Cat 4 than a Cat 3 - just as Rita's surge was Cat 5 even though it weakened to a Cat 4 at landfall in Mississippi.

A good rule of thumb is that a hurricane that is intensifying at landfall has more wind and less surge than its strength would indicate (Hugo, Charley) - and a storm that is weakening at landfall will have more surge than anticipated (Ivan, Katrina).

2,600 posted on 09/23/2005 9:12:24 AM PDT by dirtboy (Drool overflowed my buffer...)
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