Posted on 10/10/2005 8:01:44 AM PDT by AntiGuv
Back when President Bush was riding high - before the public turned sour on Iraq, before conservatives got mad about his lavish federal spending and his Harriet Miers nomination - it was widely assumed that the 2008 Republican presidential candidates would vie amongst themselves for the right to proudly carry their leader's torch.
But that's not happening.
The Republican hopefuls - as many as a dozen men who already are jockeying for advantage - don't want to be perceived as insiders and heirs to the Bush political establishment. On the contrary, most of them are trying to advertise their independence, to distance themselves from Bush on key issues, to appear as rebels fed up with the wicked ways of Washington.
A small sampling:
Sen. John McCain of Arizona is tweaking Bush for his budget-busting spending binge.
Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, a hero to grassroots conservatives, is threatening to oppose the Miers nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska assails Bush on Iraq, contending that the White House is "disconnected from reality."
Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee scoffs at Bush's suggestion that perhaps the Pentagon should be the lead agency handling natural disasters.
Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, contends that the current GOP establishment, mired in scandals, has betrayed the small-government reform agenda that congressional conservatives brought to Washington 10 years ago.
Rep. Thomas G. Tancredo of Colorado charges that Bush is soft on illegal immigration and hasn't done enough to secure our borders against terrorists.
Outsider election
"Right now, it looks like 2008 will be an 'outsider' election," said Jack Pitney, a former national party official and GOP campaign aide, "because in 2005, average Republicans don't associate insiders with success. This has been a very bumpy year, and it may get even bumpier. People looking for a candidate might feel compelled to look beyond the party establishment."
That's not traditional Republican behavior. The GOP tends to encourage and reward presidential candidates with establishment pedigrees who have paid their dues. That rule applies to every nominee since Richard Nixon in 1968.
Ronald Reagan was arguably an outsider in 1980 (he had not served in Washington), but he had run for president in 1976 and was a titular leader of the party. In 2000, Bush had never run for president, but his establishment family ties gave him insider status.
But the woes plaguing Bush - including the scandals involving indicted powerhouse Tom DeLay and well-wired lobbyist Jack Abramoff (a GOP conservative activist when he first came to town), as well as the legal cloud hovering over Bush strategist Karl Rove - are playing havoc with the traditional GOP respect for hierarchy.
'Return to our ideals'
Matthew Continetti, a conservative analyst who is writing a book about the Republican Party, said Friday: "The scandals we're facing are the consequences of being in power so long. Establishments attract ne'er-do-wells. The question we face is, do we want to continue along the same road? During the 2008 primaries, there will be reform candidates making the argument that 'we need to return to our ideals.' "
As for Bush, "you'll see people distancing themselves from him even more. This President is becoming weaker by the day."
Here's the distancing process in action: Top Republicans in four states - West Virginia, North Dakota, Florida and Michigan - have spurned the administration's attempts to sign them up as challengers to four Democratic senators up for reelection in 2006. And this year, in the reliably red state of Virginia, Republican gubernatorial candidate Jerry Kilgore has conspicuously neglected to enlist Bush's help on the stump.
Republican unrest also is evident in Georgia, which is girding for an establishment-vs.-outsider clash in 2006. The establishment figure is Ralph Reed, the former Bush strategist and ex-religious-right leader who worked with indicted lobbyist Abramoff on lucrative casino-gambling ventures. The outsider is State Sen. Casey Cagle, who is trying to paint Reed as a tainted insider. They will compete in the GOP primary for lieutenant governor, a bellwether race that could help the presidential candidates assess the depth of grassroots opposition to the Bush establishment.
At the moment, however, it is conservative fallout from the Miers nomination that has roiled the waters for 2008. Many conservatives voted for Bush last November expecting he would move the high court sharply to the right. But Miers' blank slate has prompted widespread outrage - and it's noteworthy that Brownback, who is openly courting social and religious conservatives as he maps an '08 bid, declared Thursday that he might oppose Miers even if Bush personally asked him for a yes vote.
Bill Pascoe, a conservative strategist in Chicago, said Friday: "Many conservatives believe that President Bush gave up leadership of the movement last Monday morning, with the Miers nomination. They're disappointed that [by failing to pick a prominent jurist] he shied away from a fight that would have united Republicans and divided Democrats... .
"We wanted a conservative with a track record. We've heard that 'trust me' line many times before. What all this means, for 2008, is that [we] will be more determined to look for a presidential candidate with a conservative track record, somebody with the ability to deliver proven conservative governance."
But which outsider can attract the conservatives, who tend to vote heavily in GOP primaries? Flaws abound.
For instance, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani looked good after Hurricane Katrina, because his leadership in disaster management is proven. But some party strategists believe his "pre-Sept. 11 record" will sour the GOP faithful: a messy divorce and liberal stances on gay rights and abortion.
Similarly, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has balanced the state budget without a tax hike, but he has contradicted himself while trying to woo religious conservatives (he recently told a South Carolina audience that he has opposed gay civil unions "from day one" - without mentioning that he backs a state constitutional amendment that would permit civil unions).
Maybe Sen. George Allen of Virginia, a former governor, has the right track record, but conservatives hostile to Miers are watching him carefully. Thus far, he has merely given himself enough rhetorical wiggle room to vote yes or no.
Which brings us to McCain. Among all the prospective candidates, he has arguably benefited the most during Bush's string of woes. He has an insider resume but an outsider profile. He has stuck with Bush on Iraq (and on Miers, too) but has been hammering away at the administration for its Democratic-style spending. And he has embarrassed the party establishment by chairing Senate hearings that exposed Abramoff's ethically dubious behavior.
Pitney, the former GOP official, said: "Republicans increasingly want somebody who is not tainted by the scandals, someone who is established as an ethical reformer. A lot of Republicans may disagree with McCain on some issues, but they do want to keep winning.
"And since McCain supports Bush on the war, Bush knows that he owes the guy, so he's not likely to stand in his way."
It's truly a sign of the changing Republican landscape that the antiestablishment rebel of the 2000 campaign is on track to be a leading party luminary in 2008.
ping!
Didn't this guy write the same column about nine years ago about Ronald Reagan?
A lot can happen between now and 2006 and 2008. Bush always fools the fools who try to predict his demise. He seems to, in the end, always be smarter than the rest of us.
Seems to me, that I recall that REagan took a lot of heat in his secone term and got relatively little accomplished of what he had set out to do on his agenda.
It's high time to send them the message, "do the right thing for the sake of all Americans."
The Great Conservative Crack-Up (tm)! It's here! No, wait, it's over there!
You mean like the Terrorist Protection Amendment McCain slipped into this year's Defense Appropriation bill? Seem McCain has now gone 100% in negativity. More wishful thinking from the Hate Bush always crowd. Funny how RASS who does the same poll the same way never ever gets even close to these Dinosaur Media poll results. Wonder why that is?
It will be Mike Pence in 08!
I could never vote for the self-promoting McCain.
Whatever happened to the politically forthcoming
Sen. George Allen from Virginia? He was the fair-
haired choice a few months back, supports Bush at
almost every step, and even gives thumbs up re
Meier's nomination.
The stealth RINO the money people will back to steamroller the field. I don't see him here.
It is partly because the Dim/MSM party is so stuck on stupid that we have to read such silly columns constantly.
Hagel, McCain, Tancredo, and probably Newt, too, are all non-starters. Hagel/McCain are too liberal. Tancredo is too controversial. And Newt doesn't have the kind of Varsity QB charisma you need in America to make it to the chief exec's job. I don't know much about Romney. How ironic that'd be if the GOP could elect someone from Mass. Allen has to be taken seriously, I guess. I think we could see a major 3rd party challenge ala 92 in 08. The situation will be ripe unless someone from the Dems stakes out solid ground towards the center.
Bush is almost no one's ideal President, it seems to me to be just smart politics for an ambitious guy to show some opposition to him. Most voters are not die-hard GOP'ers or "movement conservatives".
Seems the more conservative a fella is, the less chance he has these days in the GOP. Was anyone to the right of Reagan in 80? Plenty to the right of GWB in 00 got overlooked. Need someone with charm who is actually conservative. Having half a brain and being able to speak well wouldn't hurt, either.
There will be a big third party vote in the 2006 elections for the Constitution and Libertarian house and senate candidates. Instead of getting 1% they might double or triple their vote to 3% or more. It will affect close races.
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