Futures Market for Miers Confirmation Tanks

Intrade ^ | 10/21/05

[pabianice]

Contract Information

Session

lo/hi 11.0 - 45.0

Life lo/hi 11.0 - 92.5

Previous Close 62.0

Open Price 45.0 Last Price 37.0

Last Trade Time 05:32 PM, BST

Today's Volume 668 Total Volume 7191

[AntiGuv]

Hmm.. Can this market be shorted??

[SAJ]

Yes, indeed. All of tradesports.com, sportsbook.com, and Intrade operate as bid/ask mkts. For most contracts, you can freely buy or sell as long as there exist opposing offers and bids, which is almost always the case. Also, if you're astute and get a bit of practice, you can on many occasions arbitrage one mkt against another, because the bid/ask on one of these sites may be well away from the bid/ask on another. Be advised, though, the punters aren't stupid; arb opportunities only last a short time.

The other advantageous feature of these mkts is that you are not required at all to hold your position through to the mkt settlement; you may liquidate your position ('take your profit') at any time prior to settlement, again subject only to the existence of offers/bids you find suitable.

[johnmecainrino]

This is a great bet she is guaranteed to get confirmed.

The only way a nominee ever gets blocked is if the dems fillabuster. The dems don't care if she isn't qualified they recommended her because she is a squishy moderate like O'Conner.

I'm surprised any site would actually take bets on this. Harry Reid recommended her there is no way he would fillabuster her. That means that she is guaranteed to sit on the bench. The hearings might look ugly but with Bush not withdrawing her and the dems not fillabustering all I can say is what a bet.

Republicans almost all voted for Ginsberg so I don't see them voting against her either. The dems are the obstructionists.

[Jack Black]

Isn't online gambling illegal? Is this in Cayman Islands or something? How do you fund your account?

[johnmecainrino]

I was just saying it was a good bet. I've never be online though.

I know a lot of people that bet online. I don't know the technical legalities of it. The sites are locdated offshore where they are legal but they make their money off u.s betters.

[RandDisciple]

I would not "bet" against Tradesports being right. Miers is now only 34 bid (out of 100). People knowledgeable enough to put money on the line, instead of just spouting off, say that she has only a 34% chance of winning confirmation to the S.C.

Tradesports has consistently been right on predicting close political races and numerous other decisions. That is why the Defense Dept. wanted to have a "betting" web site to predict terrorist acts, etc.

This is great news. The power of the conservatives, blogs, etc. have had their effect. It looks like this political hack selection has a good chance of going down.

[Capt. Jake]

If these things were accurate, we would be discussing President Kerry's appointment of Bill Clinton to the USSC.