Posted on 11/25/2005 10:23:02 AM PST by lowbuck
Boeing’s decision finally to launch its first major 747 derivatives in nearly 20 years sets the scene for a battle at the high-value top end of the commercial airliner market and throws down the gauntlet to arch-rival Airbus to deliver on its promise that the all-new A380 will dominate the sector.
The US manufacturer expects the arrival of its stretched updated passenger and freighter 747 models to constrain sales of the 555-seat A380 to fewer than 500 over the next two decades. This would be achieved by taking more than half of what Boeing projects will be a 900-unit market for aircraft able to accommodate more than 400 passengers in three classes, of which around 40% will be freighters. Airbus has always insisted that it expected competition in this sector and, in contrast to Boeing, predicts a potential market of more than 1,600 aircraft over the next 20 years.
Spearheading Boeing’s attack on the A380 is the 747-8 Freighter, for which Cargolux Airlines will be launch operator, taking delivery of the first of 10 aircraft on firm order in September 2009. Japan’s Nippon Cargo Airlines has made a firm commitment to take eight. Including the options, the pair have signed for a total of up to 34 aircraft, worth $5 billion at list prices. The -8F will be 5.6m (18.3ft) longer than the -400F and provide 16% more cargo volume and a payload capacity of 140t.
The passenger version, stretched by only 3.6m and dubbed the “Intercontinental”, will follow but has yet to attract a launch operator, a situation that Boeing Commercial Airplanes president and chief executive Alan Mulally expects to be rectified “next year”. It will accommodate around 34 more passengers in a typical three-class layout and fly around 1,570km (850nm) further than today’s -400.
Mulally says the improvements being introduced to the 747 design – principally the use of state-of-the-art engines being developed to power the new-generation 787 and A350 twinjets – take “the performance of the 747 to the next level”. The manufacturer says the -8 designation was selected to “show the technology connection between the 787 and the new 747”.
Announcing the launch of the project in London last week, Mulally blamed the previous non-availability of such capable engines for the string of failed attempts to get a stretched 747 off the ground. The problem was that the airframe and aerodynamic changes that would have been needed to deliver the requisite performance improvements without the new powerplants could not be made economically viable, he said.
Designed to accommodate around 450 passengers in three classes, the 747-8 will provide about 20% more capacity than the 777-300 twinjet, but 20% less than the A380-800. “It’s right in the sweet spot of what we think the airlines will want,” says Mulally. He claims that the –8 will offer 8% lower seat-kilometre costs than the 747-400 and 6% lower than those of the A380, but with trip costs “25-30% less than the A380”, principally because the Boeing aircraft will weigh 13% less per seat.
The freighter will boast “15% better” tonne-kilometre costs than the 747-400 and “23% better than the A380”, Mulally claims. “The primary market will be Europe and Asia because it’s just expanding so fast in freight,” he adds. The two 747-8 variants will be exclusively powered by General Electric GEnx turbofans.
Production of the 747-400, which currently has an order backlog of 47, will cease following the entry into service of the -8 in 2009. List price of the -8 Intercontinental is $250-265 million and the -8F $265-275 million, compared with $205-237 million and $210-236 million for the -400ER and -400ERF, respectively.
---Go Boeing!!--although I suspect this "dogfight" is similar to FEMA vs. Walmart in effectiveness of delivery of results--
Pass the popcorn!
Airbus has, for all intents and purposes, been handed its proverbial ass by Boeing pretty much since this whole Airbus/Boeing "competition" - and I'm useg the term loosely - supposedly got serious.
Airbus knows that it is alive today thanks only to the subsidies it receives from the EU and its dipshit citizenry that keeps feedin' it and insisting that Boeing's receiving tax breaks and benefits (etc.) is the same diff to Airbus' living on subsidies.
Kind of makes you wonder!
Cashflow has got to be a major problem for the folks at Airbus, even more so recently, as I read on FR a report that now Air France is expecting a one year delay on their 380's.
Let them eat cake! Cashflow? The EU will just become more socialist and there will be more handouts to Airbus.
>trip costs “25-30% less than the A380”, principally because the Boeing aircraft will weigh 13% less per seat.
Weight per seat sounds like a very significant spec. Does anyone have a comparison of this for the common aircraft?
Well, DC-3s are still flying, too.
I just saw a TV special on the C5 Air Force heavy weight lifter that is being up-graded with new engines and other modern electronics. I wonder whey the C5 would not make a good passenger liner by merely adding hundreds of seats in newly designed, two-level cabins with all the passenger bennies? The C5 has a long and great record of speed, 3000 mile reach and a known record of great service. Its new GE engines are not only more powerful, but better on fuel economy too. Anyone know why the C5 would not make a great passenger liner?
I believe the technical term would be "piss poor reliability". C-5s break down over half the time. That means every other mission is cancelled or delayed due to maintenance issues. Reminds me of the old joke...You're on an Air Force base and see three C-5s, two of which are sitting on jacks. What can you deduce from this sight?
Answer...The base only has two sets of jacks.
If you want on or off my aerospace ping list, please contact me by Freep mail.
BWAH HAH HAH HAH HAH!!!!!
Nothing scarier than sitting outside the engine shop, smoking a cigarette, and looking across the top of the wing as that C-5 turns hard right onto a short final right over your building.
Facts?
Where are your facts?
FACT: Airbus outsold Boeing five years in a row through 2004. As of right now, Boeing leads Airbus for 2005, and it will take a clean sweep by Airbus of the three remaining contracts before year end if Airbus is to surpass Boeing this year. Aitbus has been more than just a competitor. You lack facts on this issue.
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