Posted on 11/29/2005 5:12:22 PM PST by roostercogburn
NYT PAGE ONE TOMORROW: 'By most measures, the economy appears to be doing just fine, no scratch that, it is doing great. But it is not quite that simple'... Developing...
No, they're "middle of the roaders"
No, because many people have to choose between eating and filling up their gas tank. Gas is at $4.00 a gallon isn't it?
....he's coming to Salt Lake City...;^)
I was listening to the radio this past weekend and the news came on (CBS Radio News). The first story was about the holiday economy. The announcer announces that "retail experts" expect a 6% boost in holiday shopping this year, which is good (even CBS couldn't deny that). But the announcer then said that that 6% will be tempered because of the high cost of gas and "discerning customers".
I started yelling and screaming at my radio at that point (I seem to do quite a bit of that lately). If retailers are expecting a 6% boost in sales then THEY'RE EXPECTING A 6% BOOST IN SALES REGARDLESS OF THE PRICE OF GAS OR HOW PICKY THE SHOPPERS ARE!!!! SIX PERCENT IS SIX PERCENT!!!!!!
Talking down the economy? Will they get Paul "always wrong" Krugman to do it?
Lemme guess.... "income gap", "too many people still left behind", etc., etc., ad nauseum.
Who can ever forget the story published by the former "paper of record" touting the recovery of the economy a month after Clinton took office? The New York Times is a disgrace.
They love that "bubble" talk. Guess it make 'em think about blowing something and that makes them happy.
The really, really bad news is:
The big newspapers and network TV are being hammered so hard that they are losing money and having to fire their people. How can that be happening in a strong economy? It never has happened before.
Life is sweet.
I'm sure he's busily working on it right now.
They missed the economic boom under Reagan so why should we expect them to give Bush any credit?
Why does Drudge feel it necessary to report what's in the Times? It's bad enough that you can read this junk in the paper.
Isn't this what Laura Ingraham calls a "but monkey"?
NY Times, aka Manhattan edition of Aljazeera, Pravda, Isvestia, and the same as Time, Newsweek, Boston Globe, Washington Post, most big city papers, NBC, CNBC, MSNBC, CNN, CBS, ABC, etc. - The Enemy Within.
Cancel all newspaper and magazine subscriptions - save the trees.
The largest majority of people in this country have never read the NYT nor will they. It would be like those who read the NYT reading the local paper here in Arkansas. They are NOT as important as they think they are. They live inside a make believe bubble with themselves and a very small minority of citizens.
Blast that good economy.... Sob sob sob.... It wasn't supposed to turn out this way ... boo hoo hoo.....
Because they can't find enough idiot Liberals to buy it.
True, if President Bush walked on water, the NYT would complain how the soles of Mr. Bush's shoes dirtied the water.
Here is the article:
Sales of New Homes Stay Strong in October, Setting Record
By VIKAS BAJAJ
Gasoline is cheaper than it was before Hurricane Katrina slammed into New Orleans. Consumer confidence jumped last month and new home sales hit a record. The stock market has been rising. Even the nation's beleaguered factories appear to be headed for a happy holiday season.
By most measures, the economy appears to be doing just fine. No, scratch that, it appears to be booming.
But as always with the United States economy, it is not quite that simple.
Consumer confidence is bouncing back from what was arguably some of its worst readings in years. Gasoline prices-the national average is now $2.15, according to the Energy Information Administration- have fallen because higher prices tamped down demand and supplies in the Gulf Coast have been slowly restored. The latest read on home sales, released today, contradicts virtually every other recent measure of housing activity that generally indicate a slowdown. And yes, manufacturers' fortunes are on the mend, but few besides airplane makers are celebrating.
It all means that the economy is likely to end the year with a splash, but that does not mean the broad economic picture next year will be even better. Indeed, the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development said today that the United States economy is likely to be a repeat of 2005. The O.E.C.D. projected that 2005 growth will settle at 3.6 percent, down from 4.2 percent in 2004. The O.E.C.D. also forecast 2006 growth at 3.5 percent, but other economists think that may be too optimistic.
Now investors, whose stock-buying had been fueling an end-of-year rally, fear that the latest positive figures will lead the Federal Reserve to take the punchbowl away by raising interest rates more than most analysts expected just a few weeks ago. In turn, that could further slow the housing market, dampen consumer spending and crimp corporate profits. "The two major concerns are the extent of slowdown in housing and how it can feed into growth and consumer spending," said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc., a research firm in New York.
Many analysts, including Mr. Shapiro, believe a housing slowdown is already under way. Along with rising interest rates and anemic job growth, any such drop-off could sap the economy next year - by just how much is still subject to debate.
Americans have taken advantage of historically low mortgage rates to buy homes, refinance existing loans and borrow money for renovations or other household needs, all of which have been an important and substantial boost to spending, Mr. Shapiro said. While neither he nor others expect that activity to dry up, even a modest tapering off could knock growth down a peg or two. Mr. Shapiro, for one, says growth could drop from 3.5 percent in 2005 to 3.2 percent in 2006.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.28 percent last week, from a low of 5.53 percent in June, according to Freddie Mac, the housing-finance company.
The Commerce Department said today that new home sales jumped 13 percent in October, to an annual pace of 1.42 million, a record. But that contradicted earlier data that shows existing home sales slowing, construction activity easing, falling mortgage applications and declining confidence among home builders.
"I basically have a wait-and-see attitude with some healthy suspicion about this report," said David Seiders, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. "Either there is something that all of those other reports are not telling us, or this will get revised."
In another seemingly upbeat report, the Conference Board showed consumer confidence jumped 16 percent. Still, that is below the level before Hurricane Katrina tore up the Gulf Coast last summer. And the Commerce Department said orders for durable goods - big-ticket items that last more than three years - jumped 3.4 percent, but most of that increase was concentrated in military and commercial planes.
In addition to housing, the Federal Reserve and businesses will have a big part in setting the economy's pace next year - the Fed, through interest rates, and companies, by their hiring decisions.
There is great speculation about how much more the Fed, where Ben S. Bernanke is expected to replace Alan Greenspan as chairman in February, will raise its benchmark short term rate, now at 4 percent, before Mr. Greenspan leaves. And will Mr. Bernanke feel compelled to prove his inflation-fighting mettle by nudging them higher still? The question may seem like splitting hairs, especially when the debate is whether the rate is 4.5 percent or 4.75 percent, but it has certainly got investors' attention.
The recent rally in the bond market, which is considered a haven during periods of economic stress, indicates that many investors are betting that the Fed "is likely to overshoot in its tightening," Ethan Harris, chief United States economist at Lehman Brothers, wrote in a note to clients.
A harder question, and one that could greatly influence policy makers, is whether business will pick up any of the slack if consumers are no longer spending as much.
So far the evidence is inconclusive.
After adding an average of 202,000 jobs a month for the first seven months of the year, companies hit a slow patch late this summer. In August, businesses created just 148,000 jobs followed by a decline of 8,000 in September after Katrina. And just when economists expected a big bounce back in October, the Labor Department reported a net increase of just 56,000 jobs.
Analysts are eagerly awaiting the Labor Department's next jobs report, out Friday, and hoping the recent weakness will prove temporary. But they worry that new-job creation may turn out to be disappointing because of deep-rooted concerns about thinning profit margins, due to, among other things, high energy costs.
"This is only a fear that has sprung up recently," Mr. Shapiro said.
Economists expect 220,000 new jobs will be created, according to a survey by Bloomberg News.
Another hard-to-measure factor that could have a positive bearing on both businesses and consumers is rebuilding activity on the Gulf Coast and in parts of Florida. The reconstruction that accompanies major disasters have been known to have a greater economic impact than the initial series of negative aftershocks from tragedies.
Many analysts say a housing-led slowdown is likely to be delayed until the second half of 2006 because billions of dollars that the federal government and insurance companies are starting to pump into hurricane-affected regions will make up for softer consumer spending.
"That is going to push up production activity into the first half of the year," said Mike Fratantoni, an economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, which expects 3.7 percent economic growth in 2006, up from 3.6 percent in 2005. "The second half of the year, we see somewhat of a drop off."
Good observation.
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