Iraq's Shi'ites eye new majority as results come in

Reuters ^ | December 19, 2005 | Mariam Karouny

[Lejes Rimul]

BAGHDAD, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Iraq's ruling Shi'ite Islamists, at odds with Washington over human rights and ties to Iran, may hold on to a slim parliamentary majority despite a big turnout by minority Sunnis, partial election results showed on Monday.

At any rate it will be by far the biggest party.

Leaders of the United Iraqi Alliance, whose performance in government has been criticised by U.S. officials and by Sunni Arab rebels who accuse them of backing sectarian militias, said they would start informal talks on Tuesday with Sunnis, Kurds and other groups to try to form a national unity coalition.

In Baghdad, biggest of Iraq's 18 provinces and accounting for 59 of 230 parliamentary seats allocated by regional ballots, the Alliance won 58 percent in Thursday's election with 89 percent of the vote counted, the Electoral Commission said.

[Lejes Rimul]

Results from nine other provinces where the bulk of the vote had been counted showed the Alliance dominant again in the southern Shi'ite heartlands -- in poor Maysan, for example, it outscored by more than 20 times the second-placed Iraqi National List led by secular former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.

[Proud_USA_Republican]

no surprises there.

[Nonstatist]

It would be unfortunate if the Alliance gets a majority by itself.

[rhombus]

Iraq's ruling Shi'ite Islamists, at odds with Washington over human rights and ties to Iran

Is this true or just Reuters experessing the usual fear?

[BikerNYC]

If the Alliance gets 58% of the vote in Baghdad, I would think it would do much better out in the countryside.

[Paul C. Jesup]

Hmm. No mention of the Kurds.

[Lejes Rimul]

There's certainly no denying that the UIA is very close to Iran. Tehran hosted the various Shia guerrilla parties that now form the core of the UIA for over two decades, and government officials from Iran and Iraq regularly visit one another and declare their deep fraternal affection, etc. If the worst-case scenarios are to be believed, the UIA has allowed Iranian Rev Guard agents to extensively infiltrate the new Iraqi government, Interior Ministry, and army.

[Lejes Rimul]

I can't find the source right now, and caveat emptor of course, but I've been seeing estimates of the Kurdish parties getting about 20% of the overall seats, down from 25% in the earlier elections, but of course the Sunnis didn't participate in those.

[jmc1969]

If the UIA just allies with the Kurds and cuts the Sunnis and secular parties out a civil war is going happen there will be no stopping it. In which case we can only hope that the Iranian backed militias are decient fighters and can win this thing fast. Otherwise it will degenerate into a long civil war.

[KC_Conspirator]

No, this is Rueters slanting everything towards an anti-American/anti-Bush stance. If the Sunni's had won, the headline would have read, "Pro-Saddam Forces win Election, at Odds with Washington".

[msnimje]

Didn't a higher percentage of Kurds vote than either the Sunni or the Shia?

[Paul C. Jesup]

If the UIA just allies with the Kurds and cuts the Sunnis and secular parties out a civil war is going happen there will be no stopping it. In which case we can only hope that the Iranian backed militias are decient fighters and can win this thing fast. Otherwise it will degenerate into a long civil war.

Right now, if you think about, the Kurds are in the best position they have ever been in, they may only control over 20% precent of the federal government of Iraq, but they have a lot of control over their region of Iraq.

The Kurds know if they declare their independence, both Turkey and Iran with invade them, but their current sitution is a good second option for them.

As long as the Kurds are allowed some reasonable autonomy for their region, they will behave (which they have been doing) and do fine.

[traderrob6]

They need a "supermajority"

[Lejes Rimul]

Turkey would invade or engage in some sort of "police action" for sure. Iran I don't think would; they have long ties with the two current big families in Kurdistan, the Talabanis and the Barzanis, dating back from their mutual struggles against Saddam back in the 1970's. Kurdish politics is still very tribal, and the Kurds have Iran's back, too - they refuse to allow Iranian Kurdish insurgents to use Iraqi Kurdistan as a base against the Islamic Republic.

Iran's not very pleased about reports of Israeli agents in Kurdistan, understandably, but I think they're willing to overlook that for now.

[green iguana]

Why would you wish for a quick victory by Iranian-backed fundamentalist Islamic militias?

[jmc1969]

I don't wish for it. But, right now if we have a civil war and it isn't won quickly by either the Sunnis or the Shia then you will have a gurrilla war lasting years in the center of Iraq and you would have al-Qaeda with a base of operations in Western Iraq and Iran would sweep in and take the oil fields in Southern Iraq.

A long civil war would feed instibility for years in the Middle East to Iran and al-Qaeda's benifit.

[MassachusettsGOP]

Results from Last Time

Democratic Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan 02.4%
Iraqi List (allawi) 24.8% (Commis included this time got 1.2%)
The Iraqis (sunnis) 01.4%
United Iraqi Alliance (shia) 60.6%
Other 9.6%

[MassachusettsGOP]

Jan 2005 Map:



What I predict for this Election:


Iraqi List (sunnis) in Green, Kurds in Orange, Coalition (shia) in Light Green

[TomasUSMC]

How many ballots can you fit in a truck? In 50 trucks? In 100 trucks?