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What Will Europe Really Do?
Real Clear Politics ^ | February 14, 2006 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 02/13/2006 9:50:03 PM PST by Daralundy

Nothing is quite as surreal as the Islamic world’s fury at the liberal and innocuous Danes. How could anyone wish to burn their embassies and kill their citizens, when they have always offered all the politically correct, multicultural platitudes and welcomed in any and all from the Middle East?

Now the furor over the cartoons, coming on the heels of the bombings in Madrid and London, the French rioting, the murders in Holland, and the failed European negotiations with the Iranian theocracy have shaken Europe to its foundations.

If the most liberal and tolerant states in Europe such as Holland and Denmark have the most problems with Islamic radicals, then what does that say about the continent as a whole? Why were not the calculating jihadists singling out a more unapologetic Catholic Poland that has larger contingents in Iraq and is far prouder of its Christian roots?

Do the Europeans sense that the more open, free-wheeling and non-judgmental the culture, the more it is hated by the jihadists? If Europe as a whole is more pro-Palestinian than the United States, disapproved of Iraq, and yet is still hated as much, is magnanimity at last exposed as appeasement—earning only contempt from an emboldened enemy?

Don’t look, however, for any overt expression of alarm. It is too much to ask of the European Union for now to go on the record supporting the right of Danish free expression or to demand an embargo of Iran as it approaches nuclear autonomy. Instead, expect the European reaction to be far more subtle: the same old public utopian rhetoric, but in the shadows a newfound desire to galvanize against the threat of Islamic fascism.

Here is what we can probably anticipate. First, will come a radical departure from past immigration practices. Islam will be praised; the Middle East assured that Europe is tolerant—but very few newcomers from across the Mediterranean let in.

There will be continued public furor over the American efforts in Iraq, but far greater secret efforts to coordinate with the United States—in everything from isolating the Assad regime in Syria to rethinking missile defense. For the past three years the post-colonial Europeans have wished the Americans to learn their imperial lessons by failing in Iraq. Yet it may well be that many in private will now wish us to succeed, if only in the hopes that such Middle East democracies will be less likely in the future to turn loose their mobs to burn European embassies and threaten their citizens.

We won’t see much public condemnation of Hamas, but more likely quiet efforts to pull the plug slowly on subsidies for such terrorists. The Europeans praised Arafat, then learned that he was singularly corrupt. Nothing disturbs a European more than to be swindled and damned as immoral in the process. Subsidies to Jew-hating Hamas terrorists only ensure both.

Europe will still talk about bringing Turkey into the fold of the West, but de facto is horrified at the thought that millions of a religion that empowers so many to go berserk over a few cartoons might soon comprise the most populous nation of Europe. I doubt any European diplomat will invest any political capital at all in restarting in earnest Turkish/European Union talks.

We can also look forward to more bizarre pronouncements such as Jacques Chirac’s warning about the French nuclear deterrent. In point of fact, Europe has no real defenses against a 9/11-like attack. They know it. So do the terrorists.

Crash an airliner into the dome of St. Peter’s or knock down the Eiffel Tower tomorrow: Europe has no mechanism to hunt down the perpetrators in the Hindu Kush, the Bekka Valley, or the wilds of Iran—much less, like the United States, to hold a rogue regime responsible.

Frustrated by its lack of military resources, but cognizant of the classical need to warn an enemy that more is to be lost than won from starting a war, France is reduced to bluster about nuclear weapons—threats that probably are either not believed or welcomed by the jihadists. In lieu of a credible military, Europe will send more tiny contingents to Afghanistan, remind the world that Britain and France are nuclear, and somehow hurry up to construct a conventional deterrent where there is now none at all.

Finally, the Europeans who despised the unilateral and preemptory George Bush will start to grate at his new multilateral side even more. Be careful what you wish for, especially when an American leader may now not necessarily be such an easy target of caricature—or may not always do the dirty work of fighting jihadists from Pakistan to the Sunni Triangle.

Instead, by letting the Europeans take the lead with the Iranian negotiations, and keeping nearly silent about the cartoon hysteria, the United States essentially has told the Europeans, “Here is the sort of restrained sober and judicious global diplomacy that you so welcome.”

Because of slated troop withdrawals from European bases, and a new American weariness with the old anti-Americanism, some Europeans are beginning to recoil at the idea that they might well be on their own—and in a war against fanatical enemies that they have appeased and without rational friends that they have estranged.

In response, we may see less of the anti-American rhetoric and a return to the Cold War slogans of a “strong Atlantic Alliance” and “an essential Nato,” as nuclear jihadists replace the fear of 300 Soviet divisions.

So now Europe is being thrust right into the middle of the so-called war against Islamic fascism. Once threatened, it will either react with a newly acquired Churchillian maturity to protect its civilization, or cave, in hopes that even more Chamberlain-type appeasement will satisfy the Islamists.

It should be a fascinating spring ahead.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: europe; vdh; victordavishanson; wot
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1 posted on 02/13/2006 9:50:05 PM PST by Daralundy
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To: Daralundy

Excellent.


2 posted on 02/13/2006 9:52:13 PM PST by CWOJackson (Tancredo? Wasn't he the bounty hunter in Star Wars?)
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To: Daralundy

Europe is sick of lagging behind the USA. It's a pride thing. They'll attack islamo-fascism with unparalled zeal, just to show the world that they are NOT eunuchs.


3 posted on 02/13/2006 9:53:49 PM PST by Hypervigilant (Cogito, Ergo FReep.)
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To: CWOJackson
If the most liberal and tolerant states in Europe such as Holland and Denmark have the most problems with Islamic radicals, then what does that say about the continent as a whole? I think it says a whole lot more about the state of Islam as a whole than anything else.
4 posted on 02/13/2006 9:57:50 PM PST by RepublitarianRoger
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To: Hypervigilant

They will do whatever Solana wants them to do.


5 posted on 02/13/2006 9:57:56 PM PST by sageb1 (This is the Final Crusade. There are only 2 sides. Pick one.)
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To: Daralundy
I'm torn on this.  

I'm 38.  My first memory of international affairs is of the Iranian hostage crisis and ever since then I've seen islamofascist lunacy and violence all over the planet.  I'm absolutely sick of it and want to see it come to a head before I die.

But on the other hand, if it happens it's going to be so terrible...

6 posted on 02/13/2006 10:00:05 PM PST by Psycho_Bunny (Women were put on Earth to look hot. Men are here to be stupid about it.)
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To: Hypervigilant

It is too late for Europe. They(Europeans) luck unity.


7 posted on 02/13/2006 10:00:34 PM PST by QQQQ
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To: Daralundy

They will have to fight, within their own countries, and the time is near. What in the big wide world were they thinking when they brought in all those Muslims? Examples abound to show that this is not a good idea.


8 posted on 02/13/2006 10:00:54 PM PST by claudiustg (Delenda est Iran!)
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To: sageb1

He worries me. Some say he's the AC.

What say you?


9 posted on 02/13/2006 10:00:58 PM PST by Hypervigilant (Cogito, Ergo FReep.)
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To: Daralundy
at the liberal and innocuous Danes

This is always assumed -- that the editors at Jyllends-Posten are liberal and that their intentions were innocuous -- but frankly this hasn't been proven. Some accounts I've read state (based on CIA Fact Book information) that the paper has a right-wing or center-right-wing political orientation. It's unclear how these labels correlate with how the terms are generally used in the US. I really wish US columnists would focus on the specifics about the paper and its editors rather than use political terms that don't directly translate into American usage, eg, a member of the Liberal Party in England would not have that much in common with an American "liberal."

10 posted on 02/13/2006 10:02:25 PM PST by mumps
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To: Hypervigilant
They'll attack islamo-fascism with unparalled zeal, just to show the world that they are NOT eunuchs.

You misunderestimate the cowardice of Europe. And even if they took any action they wouldn't enjoy it.

11 posted on 02/13/2006 10:02:50 PM PST by Mike Darancette (Condimaniac)
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To: Daralundy
So now Europe is being thrust right into the middle of the so-called war against Islamic fascism.

This is beginning to look like a very familiar scenario we've seen before.

I hope we don't have to spill more American blood to pull socialist Europe's butt out of the fire one more time.

12 posted on 02/13/2006 10:02:57 PM PST by Noachian (To control the courts the people must first control their Congress.)
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To: CWOJackson
Excellent.

Yeah, it was excellent!

Instead, by letting the Europeans take the lead with the Iranian negotiations, and keeping nearly silent about the cartoon hysteria, the United States essentially has told the Europeans, “Here is the sort of restrained sober and judicious global diplomacy that you so welcome.”

The silence of the US has been intriguing. It should be an interesting spring indeed.

13 posted on 02/13/2006 10:08:54 PM PST by Fruitbat
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To: Hypervigilant
The French get it but do it behind the scenes although Sarkozy is now stirring up the Establishment and taking action for the public to see.
14 posted on 02/13/2006 10:09:40 PM PST by 1066AD
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To: Daralundy
"Now the furor over the cartoons, coming on the heels of the bombings in Madrid and London, the French rioting, the murders in Holland, and the failed European negotiations with the Iranian theocracy have shaken Europe to its foundations."

I wish this were true. Europe's 'foundation' is the Christian faith, which they haven't come back to yet. When (and if) they do, Islam is finished in Europe, forever. Socialism and liberalism are no match for islam, but Christianity is.

15 posted on 02/13/2006 10:12:32 PM PST by TheCrusader ("The frenzy of the mohammedans has devastated the Churches of God" Pope Urban II ~ 1097A.D.)
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To: Daralundy

Great read!


16 posted on 02/13/2006 10:14:24 PM PST by nopardons
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To: Hypervigilant
They'll attack islamo-fascism with unparalled zeal, just to show the world that they are NOT eunuchs.

Sorry, it will never happen, until it is almost too late. Even then it may involve a nuclear exchange. Socialism is an evil cancer that destroys the will of any nation that is enveloped by it. The US is sliding towards Socialism and our future will be at risk if we don't have leaders who cherish Liberty and believe strongly in individual rights. The time will come when the West will be fully engaged in battle of survival with the satanic Islamofacists. The US still has the fighting spirit. Europe is almost totally secular and ripe to be overrun by the followers of a satanic pedophile.

17 posted on 02/13/2006 10:14:55 PM PST by liberty2004
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To: Hypervigilant
They'll attack islamo-fascism with unparalled zeal, just to show the world that they are NOT eunuchs.

But a true eunuch cannot help but be a eunuch (after all, where do you think the word EUnuch comes from). I get the feeling that their "unparalleled zeal" will be in the form of pronouncements, and possibly some bureaucratic nettling. They have only two options at present: paperwork or nuclear conflagration. It will take a truly epic disaster to rouse them I think.

OTOH, if a new "continentalist" movement comes to occupy the vacuum that is their souls anything could happen. I'm glad there is 3,000 miles of deep, cold water between us and them.

18 posted on 02/13/2006 10:15:12 PM PST by lafroste (gravity is not a force. See my profile to read my novel absolutely free (I know, beyond shameless))
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To: 1066AD
Syria just switched to euros, I wonder if Iran will next.
19 posted on 02/13/2006 10:17:27 PM PST by bubbleb
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To: TheCrusader
Socialism and liberalism are no match for islam, but Christianity is.

Wow. What a powerful thought.

20 posted on 02/13/2006 10:18:45 PM PST by lafroste (gravity is not a force. See my profile to read my novel absolutely free (I know, beyond shameless))
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