Simply challenge for the Pollsters. Reverse the respondents ratio Dem vrs Republicans, cut by 2/3rds the "independents" and evenly spit that 2/3s into "leans Dems" and "leans Repbs". Re-poll and republish the result. Like any statistical data, the assumptions and framework work you build into the collecting the data effects the outcome. The "News Media" polls jiggered the data to get the current results. I thought previous polling was bad but we have no entered the insane zone for pollsters. The rational "oh well more people tell they are Democrats now" is a self serving lie told to justify their slanting the data harder and harder left. The fact is political identify does NOT swing back and forth easily for most people. Like most self chosen ideficiations, people are slow to change once they "identify" their "Side". This claim that "people are flocking to the Democrats so we have to poll more Democrats" told by the Failed Media is pure Junk Science. No reputable Social Scientist would ever put their name to this kind of garbage methodology. The problem for us is all the Talking Heads define reality by poll numbers. They base everything on what they read in the polls. That is why you get such shock out of them Election Night. The data never matches the REAL results. This is an excellent example of how Garbage IN, Garbage OUT works.
That's one way. If I add 5 % to the Republican side of any poll, plus the margin of error reported, I usually get a more accurate poll number. That's worked for years. With some earlier polls, or polls I think are really suspect, I'll add ten percent plus the margin of error.
Well said. They should be using the model of the last election until proven otherwise. Rather they give the dems who hate bush a 10-15 pt advantage.
Actually they should only poll Republicans since we are the ones in power if they really want to find out whats going on!
Pray for W and Our Freedom Fighters
Come election eve, the shock is always with the Rats, as evidenced by their determination to overturn the Ohio election results. They couldn't believe W won; after all the exit polls couldn't be wrong.
Here in New Mexico, they were saying the same thing. W shouldn't have won the state. The fact that he did must mean that the election was rigged. Consequently, they just got the legislature and Richardson to throw out machine balloting and have gone back to paper ballots, to be marked and read by a #2 pencil or some such instrument. Surprisingly, I agree with that approach as the Dems are in charge of all the elections and programming of the electronic machines here. Having paper ballots that can be rechecked works for me -- as long as you keep track of the ballots, both those that have been cast, and those that would be cast by Rat pimps and later slipped into the counting line.