Stopping the next extinction wave

BBC News ^ | 3/7/2006 | By Richard Black

[cloud8]

A scientific study pinpoints 20 areas in the world where animals are not at immediate risk of extinction, but where the risk is likely to arise soon.

The regions include Greenland and the Siberian tundra, Caribbean islands and parts of South East Asia.

The London-based research team believes its work will help conservationists prevent extinctions through early intervention - prevention, not cure.

It is reported in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

The study concentrates on a concept called "latent extinction risk".

This means animals are not under threat right now, and may not be classified as in danger according to the Red List, the internationally accepted database of threatened species.

But the pattern of human development means they could be sent on a fast track to extinction in the near future, perhaps overtaking other species currently in higher-risk classifications.

"We can see this leap-frogging happening now, for example with the Guatemalan howler monkey, which was classified as being on the 'least concern' list in 2000 but which moved to the 'endangered' list in 2004 as it lost much of its forest habitat," said study leader Dr Marcel Cardillo, from Imperial College London.

"We hope conservationists will use our findings to pre-empt future species losses rather than concentrating solely on those species already under threat."

[cloud8]

From the end of the article:

[The report] It concluded that a third of all amphibians, a fifth of mammals and an eighth of all birds are now threatened with extinction.

It also concluded that although humanity is the cause, humanity will ultimately be among the losers.

Reducing biodiversity will, it says, impact societies at a number of levels, including diminishing the availability of economically valuable natural goods such as timber and compromising "ecosystem services" such as fresh water and biodegrading bacteria.

[mewzilla]

Humans might not be here if it were not for extinction. Extinction isn't necessarily a bad thing. Or unnatural.

[facedown]

Pseudo-scientists with waaaay too much grant money to spend.

[GreenFreeper]

more on this over at livescience.com:

Animal conservation efforts generally focus on the areas richest in species diversity or where many species are believed to face increased risk of extinction. But a new study suggests these efforts should be redirected to spots where animals possess specific traits that will be most threatened by future human activity. Using the newest geographic, biological, and phylogenetic databases for nearly 4,000 mammal species, researchers have identified 20 regions around the globe as potential extinction hotspots. The research is detailed in the March 6 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The areas where predicted latent risk is highest include the northern regions of North America and the islands in the southwest Pacific. Currently, these areas are relatively unmodified by humans, and mammals in these areas don’t appear threatened. But add humans to the mix and that could quickly change. Take for example the dodo, which was doing just fine until humans found it and then hunted it to extinction in just a few hundred years. Top 20 Extinction Hotspots ranked by mean latent risk: http://www.livescience.com/animalworld/060306_extinct_list.html

Potential mammalian extinction hotspots. Credit: PNAS

[Shalom Israel]

My first reaction: this is setting the stage for obnoxious "endangered species" laws to be applied to all manner of creatures that are not, in fact, endangered at all. Thanks to the "potentially endangered species" act, you won't be able to put in a swimming pool of there are house flies, robins, daddy longlegs or squirrels on your property.

My second reaction is to point out that there's a solution to endangered species: privatization. As my tagline says...

[aruanan]

But humans promote biodiversity by changing land use patterns. The USA is one of the most biologically diverse places on the earth.

[Blzbba]

"The USA is one of the most biologically diverse places on the earth."


It's also not listed as a hotspot...

[eraser2005]

When did Alaska secede?

[getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL]

Actually, the grey wolf is in serious jeopardy if we permit ridiculous laws such as the killing of wolves to save the elk population for sport.

[RightCanuck]

BTW, how do you pronounce PNAS?

[cloud8]

PNAS? Rhymes with pizzazz. Sort of.

The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences...not a pseudo-science journal.

[Blzbba]

"When did Alaska secede?"


It'll be a COLD DAY IN HELL before I recognize Seward's Folly!!

//my way of saying 'Ooops - you're right!!'

[eraser2005]

lol... :)