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I think that we are in agreement and the exact numbers aren't really that important to the argument.

The principle point is that OPEC has had a habit of purposely dropping prices to avoid alternative competition. The capital markets know this, and thus some inventive hedging is required to entice the market.

Again, wind power electricity is doing gangbusters business right now, as it is cheaper than fossil fuel at current prices. Established utilities are having great luck pricing it separately for future delivery contracts, despite the fact that it all flows into the same grid. The could just be taking additional profit right now, but instead, they are insuring their investment and building more.

I wonder if wind power would be cheaper than fossil fuels if it weren't so heavily subsidized. I'd say it definitely wouldn't be, but there are effective subsidies for the price of fossil fuels as well - for example, not taking advantage of the ANWR oil, and the artificial (and in my mind, criminal) restriction on the use of nuclear power.

Technologically, wind power is not economic except in some very special cases (locations with lots of steady wind), but in our far-from-rational energy system, who knows where the right answer will lie? If all the controls except true pollution restrictions (not including 'preserving wildlife eco-systems,' as though the caribou hadn't benefited from the Alaskan pipeline) were lifted, I think we'd find two things. First, there is plenty of energy, and second, most of the so-called environmentally friendly (and/or renewable) energy sources would turn out to be very bad polluters and so would fall by the wayside when people are making scientific decisions instead of sniffing the political winds. (Making batteries, for example on 'hybrid' cars, is an environmental nightmare, followed by the impact of making all those distributed motors on wind generators, etc.)

that could easily be solved by government placing a floor on the price of oil - it cannot go below $45 let's say - else its taxed to that level. this will prevent new entrants into the energy market from being wiped out by a manipulated dive in oil prices, to wipe out the startup's investments, just as they come to fruition.