[conservative in nyc]

The three biggest reasons for the NYC Metro area net intra-U.S. migration are:

1) Housing costs
2) Taxes
3) Foreign immigration, displacing NYC Metro residents

Also, due to a technical change in how metro areas were defined for ranking purposes in 2000, some of the growing exurban areas (like Orange County, NY) are no longer part of the NYC metro area (although they are still part of the NYC Combined Statistical Area). One of the fastest-growing counties within a 75-mile radius of NYC, Monroe County, PA, isn't included in the NY Metro or combined areas. The L.A. metro lost fast-growing Riverside and San Bernadino Counties due to the same change.

New York State is still gaining population (albeit at a much slower rate than the rest of the country) due to a net positive birthrate and foreign immigration. Most of Upstate New York is losing population, though. The only state that the census estimates has lost population since 2000 is North Dakota.

[Clemenza]

As I have said before, the main people leaving New York are 1. Blue Collar whites, 2. Nuyoricans of all social stripes (to Central Florida and Pennsylvania and 3. Middle Class blacks (to Atlanta and points south).

New York City is still attracting the wealthy like crazy. The tax base should remain OK, as the blue collar and government employee types don't exactly contribute much to the tax base, no matter what they think. Not any more.