Posted on 07/25/2006 3:19:19 PM PDT by bkwells
In the quaint old days, when a heat wave like the one we're experiencing hit, you didn't worry about, oh, the planet's health or Earth's ability to sustain itself.
You got a fan.
But now when temperatures soar to record-breaking highs, as they did in San Diego County on Saturday, one of the first things that comes to mind is global warming.
One can't help but wonder: Is that the cause of the sweltering heat? Are the record highs a sign that global warming is not the imagination of former Vice President Al Gore and so many nerdy scientists?
Taken by itself, the current heat wave is not out of the ordinary, said Don Whitlow, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego. It's summer. And it's hot.
“Natural cycles happen,” he said.
In El Cajon, it was 113 on Saturday, beating the day's all-time record by a whopping 12 degrees. In Escondido, where the previous record high was 96, it hit 112.
Even yesterday, when temperatures dropped a bit, the city of San Diego recorded its hottest and wettest July 24 in history. The high of 85 broke the 1959 record, and the 0.01 of an inch of rain broke the record of a trace, which last occurred in 1990.
One could look at yearly temperatures over the past 100 years and find similar variations, Whitlow said.
But climate experts say such temperature spikes may be happening more frequently and more fiercely because of the many decades we've spent burning fossil fuels.
Kerry Emanuel, a professor of meteorology in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, said global warming can't be pinned on any particular weather occurrence.
Instead, it's sort of like a smoker's chances of coming down with lung cancer, he said. “It ups the probability.”
Claudia Tebaldi, a project scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., agreed.
“These things happen. They're called extremes,” she said. “But the conditions are more conducive for them to happen more often.”
Whitlow said San Diego County's current heat wave is the result of a large high-pressure system that has stalled over the region. It will go away in a few days or so, he predicted, as soon as the high-pressure system is disrupted by another weather system.
Global warming? Chances are, that won't go away. Skeptics remain, but the scientific community is pretty much consistent in saying it's for real.
Experts like Tebaldi say Saturday's record highs may be superseded by new record highs. And sooner than in previous times.
“The odds of these kinds of events are increasing because of climate change,” she said. “Just as the base line is getting higher, the extremes are shooting up.”
The heat wave arrived when global warming was already a hot topic. Gore's book and movie, “An Inconvenient Truth” – which warns that the phenomenon is about to reach a tipping point, leaving humankind virtually helpless to stop it – has received excellent reviews and has grossed nearly $20 million nationwide.
In addition, some scientists, including Kerry Emanuel, are linking powerful storms such as Hurricane Katrina to global warming. Such monstrous weather occurrences will become more common, experts say.
The one bright note?
The unusual weather may help spur change.
Every time temperatures spike, people might begin wondering if global warming just may be the cause. And that's a good thing, experts say.
“We need to be more cognizant,” Emanuel said.
Michael Stetz: (619) 293-1720; michael.stetz@uniontrib.com
What in the world has Bush done to the sun???? / bush's fault sarcasm off.
I was unclear, I meant the current first derivative with respect to time. It would not have to stay at the current rate for the last 30 years very long to break what have been some historic natural barriers.
The 8ky trend is currently downward. 30yrs against 8kys of tend is a pittance and one not to be ignored especially in light of the reality and inevitability of orbital mechanics, both in the shorter geological periods of 100kys of planetary mechnics, and those of intergalactic operative on the scale of 100 million years displayed in reply #37.
We seem to have gotten stuck at the upper spike. Historically, these spikes were short lived and a cooling began shortly after. In fact, the last 100,000 years or so seem to be anomalous. This one may tell a story. Then again, the "scientific community" may be misreading the data??? Or, who are you gonna believe, me or your lying ice? :^)
From Ice Ages & Astronomical Causes
Brief Introduction to the History of Climate
by Richard A. Muller
In Figure 1-6, the 10 kyr years of agriculture and civilization appear as a sudden rise in temperature barely visible squeezed against the left hand axis of the plot. The temperature of 1950 is indicated by the horizontal line. As is evident from the data, civilization was created in an unusual time.
There are several important features to notice in these data, all of which will be discussed further in the remainder of the book. For the last million years or so (the left most third of the plot) the oscillations have had a cycle of about 100 kyr (thousand years). That is, the enduring period of ice is broken, roughly every 100 kyr, by a brief interglacial. During this time, the terminations of the ice ages appear to be particularly abrupt, as you can see from the sudden jumps that took place near 0, 120, 320, 450, and 650 thousand years ago. This has led scientists to characterize the data as shaped like a "sawtooth," although the pattern is not perfectly regular.
Figure 1-6 Climate of the last 3 million years
As can be clearly noted, we have been on a much longer trend downward trend overall across the last 3 million years with the 100kyr cycle deepening and becoming more pronounce on the downside. Entertaining the strong concept that continuation in the established 100kyr periodicity is hardly at an end with deep glacial eras yet to come.
The 8ky trend is currently downward.
The recent 2,000 years even more so of a down trend. It appears Earth is set to plunge on a down-spike of the cycle.
This one may tell a story.
As ancient_gezzer pointed out in post 43 the 8kyr graph shows a down trend. I add that the recent 2,000 years even more so of a down trend. Looking at Figure 1-3 (the 12,000 year graph) and Figure 1-2 (2,400 years) it appears Earth is set to plunge on a down-spike of the cycle. From the year "0" looking right, the upper spikes are lower highs and the lower spikes are lower lows.
My point being, it looks like it should have already happened based on the historical data in Figure 1-5. The moderate temperatures we currently enjoy appear to have been around a lot longer than they were during previous spikes. If figure 1-5 is to be believed, and given our present gaggle within the "scientific community"; flip a coin, the graph indicates some anomolous behaviour beginning at 75,000 - 80,000 years ago. About the time Toba exploded???
It would appear to the untrained eye, like mine, the temperature sampling becomes more frequent within the last 80,000 years or so, and even moreso during the last few thousand years. Is it a trick of the graph creator to make things appear worse than they actually are? Or is there cause for concern because we've been "stuck" at the current peak for far too long? Lacking more information regarding sampling rates and how they were applied to the graph, I submit we can't really tell.
FGS
Being "stuck" has made the rise of civilization possible. Otherwise it would not have happened. What is your cause for concern. that being "stuck" might not last? If so, I agree, a new ice age would be a death sentence for billions of people.
>>Here in Indiana most of the record high summer temps occurred during the mid 30's, including the all time high which occurred 72 years ago yesterday. That however doesn't stop the chicken littles from coming out of their caves every time there is a heat wave. What is funny is every time we have record cold like we did during Nov-Dec a couple of years ago the best they can come up with is that there will always be the quirky anomaly.<<
There is so much politics and so much spin.
Like "well global warming causes global cooling first" -ack..
BTW, it is true that more energy causes a more chaotic weather system.
>>As can be clearly noted, we have been on a much longer trend downward trend overall across the last 3 million years with the 100kyr cycle deepening and becoming more pronounce on the downside. Entertaining the strong concept that continuation in the established 100kyr periodicity is hardly at an end with deep glacial eras yet to come.<<
Interesting thought - there is something we can do about global warming (invoking a mild nuclear winter) - I wonder what we'd do for serious global cooling - burn forests just for the CO2?
IIRC the reason for greater abundance of temperature points plotted for more recent times is due to the overlay of more independent ice-core studies.
You never hear of the temperature increases on the other planets. The Martian polar ice caps are melting, and the Jovian atmoshere has registered 1 degree increase (from when I dont know). But it seems simple to me-the suns getting hotter..
I agree, a new ice age would be a death sentence for billions of people.
A couple of points. The closer you move to the equator the more area to circumference Earth. Meaning there's more area for global population to move into than is present between northern and southern latitudes.
The much greater point is that technology advance is exponential. It starts out imperceptibly slow but as time passes the technology advances occur super rapidly. Presently man's technology advances are at an explosive point on the curve.
Using the year 2000 as a benchmark, the technology advances made in 2000 were 200 time that of advances made in 1900. Whereas the advances made in 2100 will be 20,000 times what they were in 2000.
Long before the next Ice Age man will have solved the problem of going extinct due to climate change.
Like wise, long before the Sun burns out man will have solved the problem of where to live.
[As an aside. In 1800 technology moved very slow -- almost imperceptibly slow. The founding fathers lived twenty years and experienced very few technology advances. Presently, technology advances change the way people do things several times a year. If you want to learn more about advancing technology check out www.kurzweil.net (Ray Kurzweil) and look for articles referencing Singularity. Or, just go to here: http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=memelist.html?m=1%23664]
No the worst possibility of all would be for the implementation of a global command economy, the real goal of all this hysteria, regardless of what happens to the weather.
bump
On payday, my checking account balance jumps up abruptly, IF that recent (1 day) rate of increase continues, I'll be rich in a year or two.
Performing linear extrapolations from cyclical data is silly.
True. Interglacial periods last for up to 20,000 years. Our current interglacial period has lasted for about 18,000 years.
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