Israel At War
Godzilla Observations
Wake up today and have two surprises. First is the foiled terror plot which is taking up most of the bandwidth. The second is that after a lightening start, Olmert put the brakes on the IDF offensive. What did I say yesterday - I doubted Olmert’s resolution to go forward with the operation, but I didn’t think he’d back off so soon. The expanded Israeli ground offensive up to the Litani River and beyond has been put on hold for 48 hours Thursday to allow diplomacy to kick in. Defense Minister Amir Peretz said Thursday he will not tip off Hezbollah terrorists by announcing in advance if and when the IDF will widen its retaliation in Lebanon. Army operations do not do well when jerked around like this. An old saying goes here “Lead, follow or get out of the way”. Time for the Olmert government to ‘get out of the way’ of the IDF and let them do their job.
Syria Checks Its Bomb Shelters
The country begins checks of its public bomb shelters for the first time since 1973.Syrian media outlets reported Wednesday that while residents of towns on the border with Israel are independently looking after themselves and shelters, the 'civil guard' began checking the state of bomb shelters in Damascus. Not too worried about this, Syria would be stupid to try to take on Israel.
Iranian Soldier Among Dead Hezbollah – (As if we didn’t already suspect)
Iranian soldiers were found among the bodies of Hezbollah gunmen killed by Israel during the past few days of the Jewish state's military campaign in Lebanon. As much as many would like Israel to strike Iran, this is not enough justification on a world opinion level to launch such an attack.
Iran Issues War Preparation Orders
In the first such order, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has directed its more than 300,000 troops to prepare for a confrontation with Israel and the United States. IRGC has directed and participated in the Hezbollah war against Israel. "Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards and Basij should prepare themselves to get even with Zionists and Americans," IRGC commander Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi said. "The supreme leader [Ali Khamenei] will announce the time for this." I suspect this is more saber rattling, just like the war games earlier. The main concern is if this is a smokescreen in preparations for what ever the mad man of iran has planned for Aug 22.
Mubarak Not Kowtowed
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said that "relations with Israel serve as the best way to end the crisis," in response to opposition pressure calling on him to recall the Egyptian ambassador in Israel and the freezing of diplomatic relations between the countries. Peace has meant greater prosperity thru trade and cooperation with Israel, Mubarak is not going to threaten that.
IDF Ground Offensive
I expected to have a lot more to post after yesterday’s kickoff. However, the latest 48 hour “pause” stopped that overnight. IDF forces advanced Wednesday night to Marjayoun, and took up positions around the Lebanese town, which is located 9 kilometers (5.6 miles) north of the border with Israel, They’ve taken up positions on a strategic hill overlooking Litani River valley to the west, from where Hizbullah fires rockets at Israel. Marjayoun is a Christian town was used as the Israel Defense Forces' main base in the security zone until the withdrawal from southern Lebanon in the year 2000. The push towards Marjayoun is designed to deny Hezbollah use of the area to launch the short range Katushas into Qiryat Shedmona as well as providing a staging area to push westward along the Litani. Recent indicators suggest that IDF will push along both banks of the river, having been given permission to move northward into other rocket launching areas, such as around Nabatiye.
I am also reverting to my earlier depiction of the IDF in the western portion of the border area. There just isn’t enough supportive data to indicate that they have pushed into all that territory at this time. It is also not apparent if the westward push towards Qantara was successful or not, but I suspect that they still have a limited presence in that direction.
While frustrating to the IDF, it does give the new Northern Command General a little more time to plan and get follow-on forces into place.
The IDF reports that about nine brigades, comprising both reserve and regular forces, are active in Lebanon. Troops are already about 12 kilometers (roughly 8 miles) into Lebanon – about 10 kilometers away from the Litani River. However, my tracking does not depict that depth of penetration in the western and central sectors. They are reported to be slowly moving north, but they aren’t at the half way mark yet, IMHO, pending further reporting.
IAF Activity
They’ve continued to attack select targets. Nothing beyond what has now become common.
Hezbollah Rockets
Approximately 165 rockets were fired at Israel on Thursday. Two people were killed and a man was seriously injured by a rocket that hit a house in an Arab village near Carmel. Accuracy continues to be down, with many rockets falling harmlessly in open fields. Hezbollah may have lost some key planners and fire direction controls in the past several days.