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Believing in a conspiracy theory allows one to create their own reality as they go alone, thus insuring they are never wrong.

I used to be an amateur student of conspiracy theories, from John Birch publications to JFK theories, Trilaterals, CFR, Bilderbergers, all the usual stuff. I sought that stuff out in browsing used book stores.

What fascinated me (as someone who would go on to be a political science major and philosophy minor) about it was the intricacy of its thought process. People who rely on facts always have gaps in their knowledge, because some facts simply aren't known or are pretty solid but with some margin of doubt.

Conspiracy theorists, on the other hand, have no gaps. There is an explanation for everything, and if there is no evidence to support that explanation or if there is evidence to the contrary, it's because the conspiracy covered up or manufactured the evidence.

That requires treating complicated subjects as very simple -- as if image analysis, engineering, metallurgy, acoustics, forensics and chemistry are something a self-appointed "investigator" can grasp and convey to readers with a little self-study. Anyone with actual expertise or credentials is obviously part of the conspiracy and not to be trusted.

It also requires treating simple and obvious facts as complex. Despite the fact that millions of people saw two commercial airliners fly into the World Trade Center, and hundreds if not thousands of them photographed it; despite the fact that hundreds of families put their loved ones on planes and never saw them again; despite the fact that scientists and engineers from every reputable organization back the official version; the conspiracy theorists squint to find unexplained shadows in a couple of pixels and spin fanciful yarns supported by such compelling arguments as "are we to believe ..." or "isn't it possible ..."

One author, I can't remember who, explained the rash of JFK conspiracy theories thus: The Nazis and the Holocaust made instinctive sense; greatest crime, greatest criminals. But the idea that Oswald alone could kill JFK, that a hapless loser could pull off an act that so shocked millions of people, doesn't fit. Cognitive dissonance sets in. There is an instinctive need for a bigger villain. So a lot of folks are willing to cling to a tenuous presentation of "facts" because it gives the sense of proportion they crave, and they want to believe.

9/11 has a similar effect. How could nineteen people pull this off? Answer: They were disciplined and patient. They were well-funded and well-taught by people who had experience in how to wound a superpower using its own strength against it. Evil isn't stupid. And, unlike Good, it isn't complacent or naive. A lot of Americans can't accept that that explanation, and must look for a larger villain behind the crime.

Then there are political motivations. A surprise attack inevitably leads to war, and war inevitably leads to greater domestic powers for the government. By radically simplifying the question sui generis -- who benefits -- folks of a conspiratorial mindset will conclude that the government must have rigged the attack as an excuse for war.

It's not new. There are still theories afloat that the U.S. government engineered or allowed the attacks on the Lusitania and on Pearl Harbor, because Wilson and Franklin, respectively, needed a pretense to bring the US into a foreign war. This isn't always a fringe phenomenon; after WWI, Congressional committees concluded that the US involvement in that war was the result of a conspiracy between the financial industry (which leant money to the Allies) and the munitions industry.

But the history of conspiracies is the most powerful argument against these theories. My Lai couldn't be covered up for longer than weeks, nor Watergate for longer than months. The XYZ affair and the Zimmerman Telegram were blown almost before they started.

It's an old maxim in the intelligence community that the odds of keeping a secret are inversely proportionate to the square of the people who know the secret. A conspiracy involving thousands of people and spanning years is wildly unlikely on its face.