Posted on 10/02/2006 7:57:49 AM PDT by SmithL
Ain't it the truth.
OK let the democrats control Congress and then Dobson will get all the "values" that he is looking for. (extreme sarcasm).
Will the Republicans retain the House: Yes or No.
Will the Republicans retain the Senate: Yes or No.
No "buts" and "caveats" are allowed in the answer.
Yes, turn-out has not been mentioned much if any in this election cycle. A typical mid-term election only draws 37 to 40% of the electorate nationally. That's about 20% less than a presidential election year.
This story was the top headline on the front page of our local paper, The Springfield (MO) News-Leader, today. It's amazing that a poll is such important news.
The Media is in full swing to deliver the election to the Democrats.
The MSM does give the impression of looking around wildly for the "thing" that will spell doom for the Repbulicans. Their reporting has almost become comical. Its Fitzmas all over again.
"What's the difference between "likely" and "registered" voters? Is it that "likely" may not be "registered," and, if they're not "registered," why bother to ask them? They can't vote unless they're registered. what am I missing here?"
The point is -- often times these "polls" are just surveys of people, some or most of whom don't vote or are not even registered to vote.
I agree with Allen and Talent. I think Santorum is toast. And even if Menendez wins I don't see him making a year before he gets indicted for something.
I don't pay nearly as much attention to party control of Congress as I do to Ideological control of Congress. For example, according the American Conservative Union's monitoring of how Senators actually vote on the primary issues of concern to conservatives, "Republican" Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island voted to the right 12% of the time in 2005. Senator Hillary Clinton also voted to the right 12% of the time in 2005. Democratic Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska voted conservative 40% of the time.
If the Senate or the House is still in Republican hands but more RINOs and bi-partisan oriented moderates are elected, what has been gained?
Majority leader gets to decide what to bring to the floor. Committee chairman write the legislation and determine whether it leaves the committee and goes to the floor. Even judicial appointments have to make it past the committee before they can be voted on. Control of the Senate is important if you want to do anything other than just fight Dem efforts.
I don't think these polls even reflect the Foley news. It could get worse. I know control of the Senate is important, but I'm not going to lose much sleep if Lincoln Chaffee gets the boot. If the GOP is going to lose control anyway, we might as well clean house!
"what am I missing here?" "Likely voters" are registered voters who say they will vote on election day. "Registered voters" are just those who are registered, but there is no indication of their intention to vote. Truth be told, polls of "likely voters" are considered more accurate.
Good point -- I just like to know who they are polling. It's like when they say "9 out of 10 doctors prefered this med" and you don't know if it's a doctor, a dentist or a vet.
Motivated? I'm motivated more than I was. Happy with the choices? Not always. Going to sit out an election? Not unless I'm dead.
Personally, I am a worst-case scenario type of person. Traditionally, the party opposed to the sitting President gains seats in the mid-term elections. Bush already bucked that trend in 2004. I would love for that to happen again, but odds aren't on our side. I'm inclined to believe the polls. That doesn't mean I won't go to the polls and support the GOP. It just means I am expecting the worst and, if I'm wrong, I'll be pleasantly surprised. We can't win all the time and (if I had to pick between now and '08)-- I'd rather get it over with now than lose the presidency in '08.
Always add at least 5 points to Republicans."
We'll see. If that's the case, election day will be great for us.
Yes on both.
Narrowly on Senate.
et tu?
sit out an election? Not unless I'm dead."
If we could apply that rule to the D's, we'd be in good shape....
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