Posted on 10/15/2006 6:58:44 PM PDT by blam
Navy 'too weak' for big role in Korea blockade
By Thomas Harding, Damien McElroy in Washington and Richard Spencer in Beijing
(Filed: 16/10/2006)
Plans to impose a blockade of North Korea to prevent the regime acquiring nuclear weapons were thrown in disarray last night.
China said it would oppose attempts to inspect suspect vessels and Royal Navy commanders said Britain was unable to make a significant military commitment to the proposed United Nations naval task force.
The United States is leading attempts to put together a force that would prevent suspect cargoes from entering the Marxist dictatorship and stop North Korea exporting weapons of mass destruction technology to rogue regimes such as Iran and terrorist groups.
Attempts to assemble the force began in earnest yesterday after the UN Security Council unanimously passed a resolution late on Saturday imposing tough arms and financial sanctions against Pyongyang following its claim that it had test-fired a nuclear warhead last week.
The UN resolution prompted an angry response from North Korea, which said it would regard the imposition of sanctions as an act of war and described the resolution itself as "gangster-like".
China, which voted in favour of the resolution at the Security Council, immediately cast doubt over the effectiveness of the proposed naval force when government officials said they did not approve of the inspections regime and would not take part.
Amended rules of engagement have been drawn up for the US 7th fleet, which is based in North Asia, and Pentagon officials said yesterday that they could count on support from the vessels of 15 "core" members of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), which was set up in 2003 to prevent North Korea acquiring weapons of mass destruction technology, and includes Britain, Australia, Japan, and Singapore.
Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, will this week begin an intensive round of shuttle diplomacy, visiting China, South Korea, Japan and Russia in an attempt to shore up support for the UN resolution.
But senior Royal Navy officers last night cast serious doubt over Britain's ability to make a significant naval contribution to the proposed UN force, claiming that drastic cuts in government spending on the navy over the past decade had severely reduced their ability to participate in major foreign operations.
"I am staggered that the Government is trying to make this commitment when it knows what our Armed Forces are going through," a senior Royal Navy officer last night told The Daily Telegraph.
"But it knows that to keep our presence on the Security Council Britain needs to demonstrate what we can do."
Defence experts predicted that the most the Royal Navy could contribute was a single frigate, a Royal Fleet auxiliary support vessel and a Trafalgar class hunter killer submarine.
But senior navy officers expressed deep concern about their ability to defend their ships against a hostile missile or fighter threat after a decision was enforced six months ago to scrap the Sea Harrier fighter.
As a result of government cutbacks any British ships deployed to the South China Sea to enforce the UN resolution would depend on the American or French navies to provide "beyond visual range" air defence with their aircraft carriers.
The Navy has been cut by almost a third since Labour came into power, and the admission by Royal Navy commanders that they were struggling to find suitable ships to deploy to the UN force will raise further questions about the Labour government's handling of the armed forces' budget. Britain's military commitments to Iraq and North Korea have exposed glaring deficiencies in resources and equipment.
The approval of the Security Council resolution bolsters the right of US naval commanders to stop and search suspect vessels. North Korean trade will now be liable to constant scrutiny.
The nerve-centre of the non-proliferation web around the Korean peninsula is the USS Kitty Hawk, a nuclear powered aircraft carrier that commands a fleet of 60 ships and 350 aircraft.
China has repeatedly promised to tighten restrictions on North Korean shipments but any crackdown has so far been limited. A Chinese vessel carrying North Korean radar was intercepted in the Mediterranean last month.
Security experts also fear that increased US air and sea activity around China will raise the risk of a clash with the 600-ship strong People's Liberation Army Navy.
Very wise.
Infantry did pertty well, given the terrain. In the end, though, the Viet Cong was defeated. When the NVA invaded the south after we left, it was a conventional attack with air and armor assets.
and the possibility China could intervene on North Korea's behalf (as it did in the Korean war). NK's army is poor, but dedicated and they might get help from big brother under a war scenario. That counts for a lot.
This isn't 1950. The Chinese can't pull the whole People's Volunteer Army act on us, without risking sending their economy into gutter.
For one thing, North Korean terrain is exactly where they don't want to fight us. In the 1950s our air power couldn't see at night, and had no precision weapons, and still caused massive casualties to the Chinese. We could rip apart convoys heading into North Korea with relative ease.
The Chinese "volunteers" were also in a cult like frenzy, due to their recent revolution. They'd march across minefields to clear them, and charge machine gun nests to make them run out of ammo. The military itself was run almost like a large cult, with a strict indoctrination and reeducation focus. Those days are gone. The Chinese military is a sane organization now that China is modernizing, and will fight us using sane means.
The Chinese leaders will be very afraid of sending in their military if they think we have the advantage. I've been to the PRC, and they have a massive amount of propaganda invested in their military. TV, newspapers, you name it. They play up their military power all the time, to make the people feel confident. The average Chinese guy no doubt thinks he's got a top notch army, capable of holding it's own with anyone.
Defeat would shrink that confidence faster than dunking it in ice water. If their army was cut down at the Yalu, and couldn't even make it in to the fight, it would shatter public support for the central government. The bureaucrats running China these days won't risk warfare on anything other than a sure thing.
Its down to 250 ships
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