FWIW - non-scientific:
http://memphis.bizjournals.com/memphis/stories/2006/10/23/daily16.html
Memphis Business Journal
Business Pulse results: Cohen-White race close
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
With less than two weeks until Election Day, the competition between Mark White and Steve Cohen is heating up.
They are two of the three candidates who are vying for the Ninth Congressional District seat, which will be left vacant by U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr., who is running for the U.S. Senate. White is the Republican nominee, and State Senator Cohen is running on the Democratic ticket. Jake Ford is running as an independent.
Last week, Memphis Business Journal asked its online readers which candidate they would send to Congress. Our unscientific online survey received 331 responses: 47 percent said they'd vote for Cohen; 43 percent want White as their Congressman; 2 percent said they're voting for the independent candidate; and 8 percent don't know.
Respondents who support Cohen say:
- "Steve is the most competent, experienced and honest person running."
- "While I don't agree with Cohen's politics, he has proven his high ethics, strong work ethic, and excellent leadership ability over his decades of public service. He's a true statesman."
- "Cohen has the experience in Nashville. He showed tenacity in getting the lottery passed, because he believed in it. One of the few politicos who isn't constantly spinning."
- "Steve Cohen's vast experience in the Tennessee State Legislature makes him eminently qualified to do the best job as a U.S. Congressman."
Those supporting White say:
- "Career politicians and career political families need to be defeated where regular working class people can serve our country and hopefully turn our system of government around like it was originally meant to be."
- "I've known Mark and his wife, Kathy, for years. They are honest, intelligent, and have a heart for people."
- "No contest. White is the only candidate who is married and is a businessman. He is the only candidate who isn't a career politician. Intelligent voters will vote for Mark White."
- "The democrats are totally weak on the war on terrorism, and our country can't afford to let them take over, pull out of all engagements, then put us in peril years down the road."
- "Regardless of your party affiliation, White is the best candidate. He will always do the right thing, and he will always listen to his constituents. Memphis business owners need White in office."
- "White represents the new age of politicians -- real people, high morals, with a desire to make real changes for the good of his district."
Those who'd like to see new blood in Congress say:
- "Republicans and Democrats offer the same thing. Lets get some Libertarians elected and restore this country."
This reminds me of those telephone polls that showed Alf Landon beating FDR in a landslide in 1936.
For White to have any chance at all, Jake Ford needs to get between 30%-33% of the vote. White will most likely get between 30%-35%; I'm hoping for 34% White, 33% Cohen, 33% Ford, but predict it will probably end up 48% Cohen, 31% White and 21% Ford.