Right, LS. I am using exit poll data fromm CNN over time, assuming that Reps and Dems are equally motivated-- benefits Dems-- but allowing for the median historical decrease in midterm turnout in Ohio (~15), then defining likely voters as those that consider the economy as "very important" since that most correlates with actual voters across parties in gubernatorial elections. The 20% that said that the economy wasn't important had unusually high undecideds and young, which are the least likely to vote in a midterm. As I said, the -6.2% is only "backback of the envelope", but it has followed Zogby closely and trended with Rassmussen. So take it for what it's worth.
If you go through the House lists, it's hard to see how the Dems can win 10, and with the right shifts in the last week, it's easy to see how we could not lose a single NET seat.