Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball ^ | 6 November 2006 | Larry J. Sabato and David Wasserman

[edpc]

With one day to go, the situation is still very fluid.

No, it's not. That is a CYA way of saying, "We can't be 100% certain our data is accurate, so we're guessing."

The (national) polls have been wrong for years. I see no groundswell of change coming. What I do see, however, is a lot of Democratic fantasizing and an unnerving willing to waver on the Republican side.

We need less "reaching out" to the Left and more marginalization of these clowns.

[edpc]

willing = willingness

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Better a 'moral victory' for the demoncrats than an actual victory.

[YaYa123]

Well, for one thing, voters get to contrast Kerry's so called apology, with Rev Haggart's.(sp) Conservatives, values voters, evangelicals, our base voters have to be offended by Kerry's remarks, and his slithery, forced and fake words of contrition. Kerry offended us mightily, and he reminded us why democrats don't deserve elevation. I think both events were seismic in bringing home the base for our side.

And it didn't hurt either last week to see Bill Clinton campaigning for Harold Ford from the pulpit of a huge Memphis mega church. How offensive is that?

[Theresawithanh]

That stumps me, also. Of course, a HUGE motivator for me is the WOT and how it would go under dem control, but even at that, I don't make the connection.

[johnny7]

Sabato works for the Webb campaign...

[Caipirabob]

If these polls are accurate, this is bad news for Democrats, and they suggest that Democratic gains might be more limited than have been widely expected. Perhaps the Republican vote is finally coming home--much later than usual.

Sounds like the massive concerted effort for Republicans and Conservatives to tell the pollsters to "go pund sand" and destroy their credibility is working at pace.

[MaineVoter2002]

Recently I've been seeing republicans (even freepers) coming out of the woodwork in places like USENET POLITICAL GROUPS and in Yahoo/AOL chats and discussion boards (the ones you see normally at the end of a news story) and battling the clueless liberals. I've seen several undecided voters in those places getting convinced that voting democrat would not be in the best interest of the nation.

If we all spend these next 48 critical hours getting out the vote and shuttling friends and families to the polls as much as we can tuesday one nationally known republican said we could win seats in both houses.

Let's put long faces on the liberal media!

I think we could win atleast 3 in the house and atleast 1 in the Senate if we put our activism into gear both online, on the phone and in the field.

[03A3]

That jar jar thing really pisses me off!

[hnj_00]

if an outside were reading the msm papers or listening to airwave tv/radio...one would think that only one party was running and will win everything..... the msm and political pundits are predicting the lib/dem party to win the same as when the communist party was running in the old ussr!!!!

the communist lib/dem party is running here in the USA but the outcome on tuesday will be very different and the msm and pundits will all be wrong...the republicans will win if everyone does whatever to get out and VOTE!!!!

[Knitting A Conundrum]

I want to know why some people think that a pastor screwing up would make a difference in the way I would vote?

[joeystoy]

I heard that the NFL is going to add a column in the standings for Moral Victories. Kind of takes the sting out of a close loss, you know, a public "Attaboy" for the losers.

[BurtSB]

sabaoto outed himself as a dnc operative with his false Allen comments. He is always wrong. I recall the moronic Kerry is going to win comments made for months before the election . Ignore him !

[Gone_Postal]

I don't listen much to polls I believe most are bias anyway
I also don't know who will win, listening to the msm how could anyone most are bias anyway.
All I know I vote strait ticket (R)...There is no way I can vote democrap

[Timeout]

It's becoming very tiresome how the MSM comes up with this predictable story line in the last week of EVERY election cycle:

"THERE ARE ACTUAL REPUBLICANS OUT THERE - OUR FINAL POLL FOUND THEM!!!"

My predition:
House: Dems pick up 18 net seats (Hello, Speaker Pelosi)
Senate: Dems pick up 3 net seats (GOP hangs on)

---

Speaking of the Senate, isn't Mitch McConnell in line to replace Frist? Where has he been? He's my favorite junkyard dog Republican senator and I don't believe I've seen him even once on the campaign trail.

[nativist]

His Senate predictions are off it seems. He's given the benefit of the doubt to every Dem. If you give him Santorum,Menendez and Dewine and Republicans Steele, Burns, Talent, Chafee its only a 1 seat pick up. Am I missing another toss up?

I would like to know why republicans are still pounding Michigan and Penn if they are lost causes. Is it because we have the money to?

Sabato seems to be treating Kyle almost as a toss up but Steele, Chafee and McCaskil as Dem victory's. Odd.

[nativist]

Who are your Dem pick up seats in the Senate?

[kempster]

Congratulations to all those who said that the polls would start tightening in the days before the election.

This happens every election cycle and let's hope that the media never figures out that by tilting these polls toward the left they only tend to energize the base of the right.

Thank You Larry, John etc.

[p[adre29]

I noticed that as well, Sabato made himself a part of the election instead of merely polling about the election.

One pollster with credibility if anyone wouldn't mind!

[mathluv]

For the first time, ever, I voted a straight R ticket. There are always some I don't vote for because I don't like them (like my state rep - but I voted against him in the primary, not now). The dims getting in charge of ANYTHING will not be good for this country.

Living in NE TX, there are no 'swing' sits up (unless it is for gov).

For those who want to teach the R's a 'lesson', what makes you think the country can survive, as is, for two years under dims - who the terrorists support?