Posted on 11/06/2006 1:41:32 AM PST by YaYa123
With one day to go, the situation is still very fluid. This weekend, we had a potentially pro-GOP event, the sentencing of Saddam Hussein, and a potentially pro-Democratic event, the unveiling of Rev. Ted Haggard's family values hypocrisy. The Crystal Ball's initial guess was that both news headlines, while attention-grabbing, would have only a marginal impact on the vote (and it's also worth noting that a record percentage of voters will have voted early this year, softening any impact of the last-minute headlines).
Yet something is happening. Both the Washington Post/ABC News poll and the new Pew survey show a dramatic tightening of the generic ballot vote, with Democrats leading by 4 to 6 percent. If these polls are accurate, this is bad news for Democrats, and they suggest that Democratic gains might be more limited than have been widely expected. Perhaps the Republican vote is finally coming home--much later than usual. President Bush's campaigning in red territory and the GOP's smart get-out-the-vote operation may be working at last. We will know tomorrow night.
(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...
For my part, I don't think he has taken into account the significance of Broken Glass Republicans, nor does he seem to "get it" where Rev Haggard (sp) is concerned. My opinion is that this disgusting personal fall from grace will motivate supporters of "one man one woman marriage" amendments, and it will drive evangelicals to the polls to show support for conservative/republican candidates voters.
I don't know. Some of the lefty sites are hyping a Gallup poll that supposedly shows some races swinging back to the RATS. I guess we'll find out tomorrow night.
where are you, Recovering Democrat? I'm in Georgia, so irrelevant to who takes over the Senate.
From all I've seen elsewhere, I'm surprised Sabato didn't change his Montana prediction to a win for Burns. I think we've got that one.
I personally do not take the results of polls as indicators of what actually happens, due to things which can't be measured by polls, actual votor turnout, for one. Just because someone is a "likely voter" does not mean that they will vote. The only poll which matters is election day.
I do think that the GOP base is highly motivated in this election.
Alright, I'm ready:
GOP holds House by 2 seats.
GOP holds Senate by 2 seats.
Lots (but not an overwhelming number of) of Democrat candidate signs. The big battle down here Congress-wise is Clay Shaw (Constitutionalist Republican) vs. Ron Klein (liberal hack job Democrat operative).
Most of my GOTV calls have been for Shaw and Charlie Crist our gubernatorial candidate...I did not support Crist in the primary but am working for the party as a volunteer so when I work the phones we give him a plug too.
Better a REPUBLICAN than a 'rat, in my opinion...even if I don't the the REPUBLICAN is the best REPUBLICAN he or she can be! :)
I never heard of Ted Haggard before this week.
and the fact that he is a fag means nothing on how
or if I vote.
I hate it for the church and THE Church but that's
all.
Sabato is a total freaking retard.
let the free for all begin LOL>
Even the fools at dkos aren't hoping for this much.
BTW, you say you're in Georgia; I may be moving to the St. Mary's area in a year or so. Do you know anything about that area (nice locations to live, stuff to do, etc)?
Observations from an mostly conservative CA district (yes, there are a few), CA 4, Doolittle (R) vs Charlie Brown (D):
Saturday at a congested intersection, all four corners were stacked with Brown supporters waving signs urging people to "honk for Charlie Brown". In the two minutes we waited there, we heard four or five different honks, not many, considering the traffic flow.
Our household is one registered Republican, one decline to state. We have received a number of robo calls, mostly for Republican candidates and statewide Propositions.
When we came back Saturday, we had recorded calls from Clint Eastwood for Tom McClintock, Ben Stein for Arnold, and Rudy Guliani for Republicans in general (I think).
The Doolittle campaign is running robo calls that start out, "Hello, I want to talk about Charlie Brown". The calls are being placed at inconvenient times (near the dinner hour, at the start of bball or football games, later in the evening). Evidently, they are effective, because the Brown campaign is getting calls of complaint. My friend, who is the Dem Committee Chairman in this District is all agitated over Doolittle's "dirty tricks".
I think everybody expects Doolittle to win, but he will have the toughest fight of his 16 year career, due mostly to his own lack of attention to ethical details. I will hold my nose and vote for him.
If that's the case the ratz will still claim a "moral victory"...that'll be the rat bleat for the next two years.
prisoner6
I have been trying to figure out how Haggard affects the republicans, i don't get it.
I think everyone is misunderestimating the Kerry effect, reminding we the dumb little people that we have to keep the dems out of power.... i think it's a huge factor.
I was polled on two occassions during past elections, however I've now been registered on the National Do Not Call List for the last few years. Plus I seldom call out or answer the landline or give it out as my number to friends and family. I really only kept the landline for my alarm system and for my Directv receivers to call out on.
Many of my coworkers, who are also Republicans, are also on the list or have no land-line phone at all, their cellphones (which are not called by pollsters) being their only phones.
Is it possible that even well conducted, non-biased polls are fatally flawed, and that telephone-based polling has been rendered obsolete by technology and lifestyle changes?
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