[YaYa123]

I hope this thread won't turn into an "Insult Sabato" free for all. But please add specific information from your local perspective, which either refutes or backs up Sabato's crystal ball.

For my part, I don't think he has taken into account the significance of Broken Glass Republicans, nor does he seem to "get it" where Rev Haggard (sp) is concerned. My opinion is that this disgusting personal fall from grace will motivate supporters of "one man one woman marriage" amendments, and it will drive evangelicals to the polls to show support for conservative/republican candidates voters.

[balch3]

I don't know. Some of the lefty sites are hyping a Gallup poll that supposedly shows some races swinging back to the RATS. I guess we'll find out tomorrow night.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Sabato's crystal ball failed miserably in '04. Locally, I've seen mixed signals, but I haven't sensed a "tidal wave" for either party.

[Theresawithanh]

I personally do not take the results of polls as indicators of what actually happens, due to things which can't be measured by polls, actual votor turnout, for one. Just because someone is a "likely voter" does not mean that they will vote. The only poll which matters is election day.

I do think that the GOP base is highly motivated in this election.

[Coldwater Creek]

Your crystal ball is much more accurate than Sabato's. I am not bashing him, but it is comical to watch the pundits CYAing.

[Lancey Howard]

Alright, I'm ready:

GOP holds House by 2 seats.
GOP holds Senate by 2 seats.

[norge]

I don't understand how people can think that the Haggard or Foley thing is going to make me, or any other Christian, Republican, Family Values Voter, etc., turn around and vote for the Democrat in virtually any race, let alone not vote.

[Reaganez]

Sabato is a total freaking retard.

let the free for all begin LOL>

[Question Liberal Authority]

I don't get the Ted Haggard thing at all. Like a Values Voter is supposed to say "you know, I was always against gay marriage in the past, but now that I know that the Reverend Ted Haggard once paid a guy to massage his back, I think they should get married."

Cripes. I've gotten massages from a chair at the mall. It doesn't mean I'm itching to marry one.

The only thing I can figure is that the Bush drunk driving thing hurt him in 2000, so the Donks figure they can replicate this with Ted Haggard.

Maybe, but I can't shake the feeling that Dems flat out don't "get" Values Voters. The Dems are like "you call yourself a Christian, but if you were REALLY a Christian you would have compassion for those who are seeking abortions, same-sex marriage, and defeat at the hands of Islamo-Fascist terrorists".

The Donks are so used to telling their constituents what to think - "you union guys are going to be for illegal immigration cutting your wages and for environmental regulations cutting your jobs", that they think they can apply this to non-Democrat constituents. I guess we'll see.

[DB]

If it turned out Jerry Falwell was a gay pedophile that did donkeys it would have zero affect on my vote. And I don't understand people that it would affect.

[norge]

Observations from an mostly conservative CA district (yes, there are a few), CA 4, Doolittle (R) vs Charlie Brown (D):

Saturday at a congested intersection, all four corners were stacked with Brown supporters waving signs urging people to "honk for Charlie Brown". In the two minutes we waited there, we heard four or five different honks, not many, considering the traffic flow.

Our household is one registered Republican, one decline to state. We have received a number of robo calls, mostly for Republican candidates and statewide Propositions.

When we came back Saturday, we had recorded calls from Clint Eastwood for Tom McClintock, Ben Stein for Arnold, and Rudy Guliani for Republicans in general (I think).

The Doolittle campaign is running robo calls that start out, "Hello, I want to talk about Charlie Brown". The calls are being placed at inconvenient times (near the dinner hour, at the start of bball or football games, later in the evening). Evidently, they are effective, because the Brown campaign is getting calls of complaint. My friend, who is the Dem Committee Chairman in this District is all agitated over Doolittle's "dirty tricks".

I think everybody expects Doolittle to win, but he will have the toughest fight of his 16 year career, due mostly to his own lack of attention to ethical details. I will hold my nose and vote for him.

[libbylu]

I have been trying to figure out how Haggard affects the republicans, i don't get it.

I think everyone is misunderestimating the Kerry effect, reminding we the dumb little people that we have to keep the dems out of power.... i think it's a huge factor.

[Yankee]

I was polled on two occassions during past elections, however I've now been registered on the National Do Not Call List for the last few years. Plus I seldom call out or answer the landline or give it out as my number to friends and family. I really only kept the landline for my alarm system and for my Directv receivers to call out on.

Many of my coworkers, who are also Republicans, are also on the list or have no land-line phone at all, their cellphones (which are not called by pollsters) being their only phones.

Is it possible that even well conducted, non-biased polls are fatally flawed, and that telephone-based polling has been rendered obsolete by technology and lifestyle changes?

[edpc]

With one day to go, the situation is still very fluid.

No, it's not. That is a CYA way of saying, "We can't be 100% certain our data is accurate, so we're guessing."

The (national) polls have been wrong for years. I see no groundswell of change coming. What I do see, however, is a lot of Democratic fantasizing and an unnerving willing to waver on the Republican side.

We need less "reaching out" to the Left and more marginalization of these clowns.

[Caipirabob]

If these polls are accurate, this is bad news for Democrats, and they suggest that Democratic gains might be more limited than have been widely expected. Perhaps the Republican vote is finally coming home--much later than usual.

Sounds like the massive concerted effort for Republicans and Conservatives to tell the pollsters to "go pund sand" and destroy their credibility is working at pace.

[MaineVoter2002]

Recently I've been seeing republicans (even freepers) coming out of the woodwork in places like USENET POLITICAL GROUPS and in Yahoo/AOL chats and discussion boards (the ones you see normally at the end of a news story) and battling the clueless liberals. I've seen several undecided voters in those places getting convinced that voting democrat would not be in the best interest of the nation.

If we all spend these next 48 critical hours getting out the vote and shuttling friends and families to the polls as much as we can tuesday one nationally known republican said we could win seats in both houses.

Let's put long faces on the liberal media!

I think we could win atleast 3 in the house and atleast 1 in the Senate if we put our activism into gear both online, on the phone and in the field.

[hnj_00]

if an outside were reading the msm papers or listening to airwave tv/radio...one would think that only one party was running and will win everything..... the msm and political pundits are predicting the lib/dem party to win the same as when the communist party was running in the old ussr!!!!

the communist lib/dem party is running here in the USA but the outcome on tuesday will be very different and the msm and pundits will all be wrong...the republicans will win if everyone does whatever to get out and VOTE!!!!

[Knitting A Conundrum]

I want to know why some people think that a pastor screwing up would make a difference in the way I would vote?

[BurtSB]

sabaoto outed himself as a dnc operative with his false Allen comments. He is always wrong. I recall the moronic Kerry is going to win comments made for months before the election . Ignore him !

[Gone_Postal]

I don't listen much to polls I believe most are bias anyway
I also don't know who will win, listening to the msm how could anyone most are bias anyway.
All I know I vote strait ticket (R)...There is no way I can vote democrap

[Timeout]

It's becoming very tiresome how the MSM comes up with this predictable story line in the last week of EVERY election cycle:

"THERE ARE ACTUAL REPUBLICANS OUT THERE - OUR FINAL POLL FOUND THEM!!!"

My predition:
House: Dems pick up 18 net seats (Hello, Speaker Pelosi)
Senate: Dems pick up 3 net seats (GOP hangs on)

---

Speaking of the Senate, isn't Mitch McConnell in line to replace Frist? Where has he been? He's my favorite junkyard dog Republican senator and I don't believe I've seen him even once on the campaign trail.